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电力改革使得发电商成为发电市场上的独立投资主体,在此背景下研究了发电商投资决策问题.从投资收益最大化作为投资决策的基本原则出发,利用鞅和测度转换理论分析了电价的变化特性对发电容量项目最优投资时机和投资概率的影响.结果表明电量电价不确定环境下发电商具有延迟投资的倾向,而容量电价对发电容量投资则具有很强的激励作用.结论显示不确定是投资风险的根源,电价不确定性的增加提高了发电商的投资风险,降低了发电项目的投资概率.
In the background, the problem of investment decision-making of generators is studied in the context of power reform, which makes generators become independent investors in power generation market. From the perspective of investment return maximization as the basic principle of investment decision-making, martingale and measure conversion theory are used to analyze the change of electricity prices Characteristics on the optimal investment timing and investment probability of generation capacity project.The results show that power generation companies have a tendency to delay investment in the environment of electricity price uncertainty and the capacity price has a strong incentive effect on the generation capacity investment.Conclusions show that the uncertainties Is the root cause of investment risk. The increase of the uncertainty of electricity price increases the investment risk of the generator and reduces the investment probability of the power generation project.