论文部分内容阅读
基于1978年~2012年《中国统计年鉴》数据,应用消费经济学原理,借助多元回归等计量经济学方法 ,对城乡居民口粮消费和猪肉消费的动态变化及互动关系进行分析,结果表明:城乡居民人均口粮消费量总体呈现先缓慢下降然后趋于平稳的状态,猪肉消费量变化的波动性大,总体呈现波浪式上升状态;农村居民的人均口粮消费量高于城镇居民的口粮消费量,而对猪肉产品的人均消费量却低于城镇居民,但城乡居民人均口粮消费和猪肉消费量的差距正在缩小;人均口粮消费与猪肉消费存在着替代效应、收入效应、价格联动效应和粮食生猪发展的梯度效应及财政政策的激励效应等。基于此,笔者提出宏观农业政策调整应关注粮食和猪肉消费需求变化、重视饲料粮的安全和正确运用政策杠杆稳定生猪生产等政策建议,以满足城乡居民日益增长的食物消费需求。
Based on the data of China Statistical Yearbook from 1978 to 2012, applying the principle of consumer economics, with the help of econometrics such as multiple regression, the dynamic changes and interactions between rations and pork consumption in urban and rural areas were analyzed. The results showed that urban and rural residents The per capita consumption of food dropped slowly and then tended to be stable. The fluctuation of pork consumption was volatile and showed an overall wave-like rise. The per capita consumption of food for rural residents was higher than that of urban residents, The per capita consumption of pork products is lower than that of urban residents, but the gap between per capita consumption of grain and pork consumption between urban and rural residents is narrowing. There is a substitution effect, income effect, price linkage effect and the gradient of the development of grain hogs Effect and the incentive effect of fiscal policy. Based on this, the author proposes that the adjustment of macro-agricultural policies should pay attention to the changes in the demand for food and pork consumption, pay attention to the safety of feed grains and properly use the policy lever to stabilize pig production and other policy recommendations to meet the growing urban and rural residents food consumption demand.