科学的港口货物吞吐量预测结果可为国家安排港口生产和规划未来建设提供重要依据。本文以1999年至2009年我国沿海规模以上港口货物吞吐量的月度数据为基础,利用时间序列的建模方法,构建了ARIMA季节乘积模型,对2010年前三季度货物吞吐量做出短期预测,并给出结果分析和建议。 The scientific forecast of the port cargo throughput can provide an important basis for the state to arrange port production and plan the future construction. Based on the monthly data of the cargo throughput of above-scale coastal ports in China from 1999 to 2009, this paper constructs ARIMA seasonal product model by using the time series modeling method, makes a short-term forecast of cargo throughput in the first three quarters of 2010, And give the result analysis and suggestion.