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北海域位于东海南部,为灾害性台风浪的频发海域,直接影响本海域的台风,平均每年为3次,给社会经济带来了很大的危害。本文主要是在应用“八五”攻关成果的基础上,利用历史资料,筛选出一套适合于北海域的台风浪数值预报模式,并试图对它进行优化和发展:①在计算时,将采用(1/4)°×(1/4)°的细网格;②在边界条件的处理上,将扩大计算区域,把大区域得到的结果作为本海域的边界条件;③优化海上风的预报模式,以提高风场的预报精度,进而提高浪场的预报精度;④调整地形信息场,预报海浪数值预报模式调用。经过对97年影响本海域的两次台风过程的试预报,预报效果令人满意,模式的运行也很稳定。海浪数值预报模式得出的结果,可以为防台减灾提供科学的依据,也可供海浪经验预报和海洋工程作参考。
The Beibei sea area is located in the southern part of the East China Sea. It is a frequently-occurring area where waves of disastrous typhoon waves directly affect the typhoon in this area, averaging 3 times a year, causing great social and economic harm. Based on the achievements of the “Eighth Five-year Plan”, this paper mainly uses historical data to screen out a set of numerical forecasting model of typhoon waves suitable for Beibei sea area, and tries to optimize and develop it: ① In the calculation, (1/4) ° × (1/4) ° fine grids; (2) in the treatment of boundary conditions, the calculation area will be expanded and the results obtained in large areas will be used as boundary conditions in this area; (3) Forecast model to improve the forecast accuracy of the wind field, and then improve the forecast accuracy of the wave field; (4) to adjust the terrain information field and predict the forecast model of the ocean wave forecast. After the trial forecast of two typhoon processes affecting the area in 1997, the forecast result is satisfactory and the mode of operation is also very stable. The results of the NWFM model can provide a scientific basis for preventing and mitigating disasters and also can be used as a reference for forecasting ocean waves and ocean engineering.