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本文旨在为如下的预言辩护,即在未来50年内,人们会看到古老的“普世史”传统的回归。不过,即将回归的将是一种新型的普世史,其视野涵盖全球,在旨趣和方法论上凸显科学精神。直至19世纪末,人们还能在大多数历史研究的传统中看到某种普世史的身影。然而当历史学家们对宏大的历史描述彻底失去信心后,当他们转而投入故纸堆中开始仅关注细枝末节时,普世史便销声匿迹了。如今,由于(至少部分是由于)20世纪在多个不同领域展开的细致的实证研究以及摆脱现存文字记录束缚的绝对测年法的发明,人们业已看到了普世史回归的诸多征兆。接着,作者对这种全新的、科学的普世史的回归对历史研究可能产生的影响给予探讨,比如历史研究与诸多凸显时间维度的自然科学学科——包括宇宙学、地质学和生物学——将发生更加紧密的联系。最后,本文提出一种可能性,即普世史终将进入高中课堂并为整合人文与自然科学知识提供一种强有力的方法。
This article aims to justify the prophecy that in the next 50 years people will see the return of the ancient “universal history” tradition. However, the forthcoming return will be a new type of universal history with a global perspective that will highlight the spirit of science in terms of interest and methodology. It was not until the end of the 19th century that people were able to see some universal history in the tradition of most historical studies. However, when historians completely lost their confidence in the grand historical description, universal history disappeared as they turned their attention to minutiae instead. Nowadays, many signs of the return of the universalist history have been seen due to, at least in part, the elaborate empirical research carried out in many different fields in the 20th century and the invention of absolute dating, free from the shackles of existing written records. Next, the author’s discussion of the possible impact of historical research on the return of this new and universal universal history, such as historical studies and many natural science disciplines that highlight the time dimension - including cosmology, geology and biology - - It will happen more closely. Finally, this article proposes a possibility that universal history will eventually enter the high school classroom and provide a powerful way to integrate humanities and natural sciences.