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为适应农业发展的需要,搞好病虫测报缩短组建病虫预报模式的周期,我区于1985年探索用以空间取代时间的同步预测(Syhchro—prognosis)方法长期预报麦蚜发生程度。经我区三年实践和18年资料验证,与历年发生程度相吻合的有17年,历史符合率94.4%。现以德州地区和商河县麦蚜资料为例,用列联表(Contingency table)同步、预测分析。一.资料由于处在北纬37°26′,东经116°19′的德州和位于北纬37°20′,东经117°10′的商河县植保站,两地相距80公里。山两地资料看出穗期麦蚜高峰量与当地冬前11月平均气温,10—12月平均气温和当年3月降水量有一定相关性,其资料列表一
In order to meet the needs of agricultural development and improve pest forecasting to shorten the cycle of pest forecasting, we explored in 1985 the long-term prediction of the occurrence of wheat aphids using the Syhchro-prognosis method. After three years of practice and 18 years of data verification in our district, it has 17 years of coincidence with the historical occurrence and the historical coincidence rate of 94.4%. Taking the wheat aphid in Texas and Shanghe as an example, we use the contingency table to synchronize and forecast the analysis. I. Information As a result of the Shanghe Plant Protection Station at 37 ° 26’N, 116 ° 19’E and the Plant Protection Station in Shanghe at 37 ° 20’N and 117 ° 10’E, the two places are 80 kilometers apart. Mountain and other data show that the peak amount of wheat aphids spike stage and the local average temperature in November before winter, the average temperature in October-December and the current March precipitation has some relevance, the data in a list