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综合国内外40多年专家学者对城市演变格局中转换规则、控制因子、模拟精度的研究实例,得出结论:(1)CA模型在城市扩展预测中,仍需要加深对地理现象演变过程的机理研究和模拟;(2)城市模型的适用性有待进一步提升;(3)众多实例中有少部分精度在90%以上的情况,证明精度模拟水平仍可通过此类系统分析提升。城市扩展的时空演变研究应从实际解决快速城市化问题的视角,发掘CA模型对城市时空变化格局的正面影响,探索CA模型应对城市扩展的主动策略。
Based on more than 40 years of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the evolution pattern of the city of the conversion rules, control factors, simulation accuracy of the study concluded: (1) CA model in the urban expansion forecast, the need to deepen the evolution of the phenomenon of geographical mechanism And simulation; (2) the applicability of the urban model needs to be further improved; (3) there are a few cases in which a small percentage of the accuracy is above 90%, proving that the accuracy simulation level can still be improved through such systematic analysis. The research on temporal and spatial evolution of urban expansion should explore the positive influence of CA model on the spatial and temporal changes of urban space from the perspective of solving the problem of rapid urbanization and explore the active strategy of CA model to deal with urban expansion.