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2003年非典型肺炎(severe acute respiratory syndrome,SARS)疫情以来,高致病性禽流感、甲型H1N1流感、H7N9流感暴发流行等一系列公共卫生事件的发生,全球卫生部门都在致力于提高对传染病暴发流行的早期预测预警能力。在完善传染病疫情监测系统的基础上,基于模型的传染病疫情预测预警研究成为公共卫生领域的重点。基于模型的传染病预测预警是根据对传染病传播动力学特征,运
Since 2003, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a series of public health emergencies such as HPAI, H1N1 influenza and H7N9 influenza outbreak have taken place. The global health sector is committed to raising the Epidemic outbreak epidemic early warning and early warning capabilities. On the basis of perfecting the monitoring system of epidemic situation of infectious diseases, the model-based research on the prediction and early warning of epidemic situation of infectious diseases has become the focus of the public health field. Model-based prediction and warning of infectious diseases is based on the dynamics of transmission of infectious diseases