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“一带一路”沿线国家发展状况不一,国内银行和企业在开展相关跨境业务时,不可避免地面临东道国的国别风险。针对此问题,本文选取相关经济指标,采用主成分分析方法,建立国别经济风险评估模型,并选取泰国历史上的风险迁徙状况对模型进行检验,之后提出控制国别风险的相关建议,以期为中国银行和企业“走出去”建设“一带一路”提供参考。
Countries along the Belt and Road are in different development situations. Domestic banks and enterprises are inevitably facing the country-specific risk of the host country while carrying out related cross-border business. In order to solve this problem, this paper selects the relevant economic indicators, uses the principal component analysis method to establish the country economic risk assessment model, and selects the history of the risk migration status in Thailand to test the model. Then it puts forward some suggestions to control the country risk, Bank of China and enterprises “Going out ” building “Belt and Road” for reference.