南京大学大气科学系杨修群教授领导的研究小组利用改进的计算机分析模型,采用80年代海洋大气的观测信息,通过一系列的复杂运算,成功预测了80年代所发生的历次厄尔尼诺的现象。从而为实现厄尔尼诺的实时动力预报提供了可能。这项研究成果将大大提高我国华南、长江中下游等厄尔尼诺影响显著地区灾害性天气气候预测的准确性。厄尔尼诺是指太平洋中东部赤道附近海表温度每隔几年的异常升温现象。我国华南、长江中下游地区的“洪水”以及东北地区的“冷夏”等灾害性天气与厄尔尼诺的变化有着较为密切的关系。利用 The research team led by Prof. Yang Xiuqun, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, used improved computer analysis models to predict the El Niño events of the 1980s through a series of complex calculations using observations from the 1980s ocean atmosphere. Thus making it possible to achieve El Niño real-time power forecasting. The research results will greatly improve the accuracy of the disastrous weather and climate prediction in areas of El Niño that affect South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. El Niño refers to anomalous warming of the sea surface temperature near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean every few years. The disastrous weather such as “flood” in South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and “cold summer” in northeast China are closely related to El Niño changes. use