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国内对于财务预警模型的研究较多,但多数预警模型中指标体系的建立都是采用以利润为基础的财务指标,但是由于企业经营收益的确认与经营现金回收在时间上的不一致,企业利润很容易受会计准则和会计政策选择的影响。基于权责发生制选取的指标在财务预警中存在一定的局限性。在“现金至上”的现代企业理财环境中,现金流量信息基于收付实现制,现今的流入与流出与收益的确认在时间上同步进行,各期信息之间较为独立,因此现金流量信息能更为清晰地揭示企业的流动性和财务状况。中小企业融资难的问题在我国尤为突出,中小企业是否有充裕的现金流量是决定生存和发展的关键。本文构建了基于现金流量指标的中小企业财务预警体系,采用功效系数模型进行警情预报,并结合具体案例予以应用。
Domestic research on financial early-warning model is more, but the establishment of the index system in most of the early-warning models is based on the use of profit-based financial indicators, but due to the inconsistencies in the recognition of business operating income and cash recovery from business, corporate profits are very Easily affected by accounting standards and accounting policy choices. Indexes selected on the basis of accrual basis have some limitations in financial early warning. In the modern cash management environment, the cash flow information is based on cash receipts and payments. The current inflows and outflows and the confirmation of revenue are synchronized in time, and the information in each period is relatively independent. Therefore, the cash flow information Can more clearly reveal the liquidity and financial status of enterprises. The problem of SME financing is particularly prominent in our country. Whether SMEs have sufficient cash flow is the key to survival and development. This paper constructs a financial early warning system for SMEs based on cash flow indicators, uses the efficiency coefficient model to forecast the police intelligence, and applies it in combination with specific cases.