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在设定每一部件的致命性故障率为常数并在确定出各部件任务修复时间置信上限的基础上，通过对可能发生的多次致命性故障事件的概率状态描述，得到了部件故障率与系统可信度的定量关系，进而依据这一可信度的建模原理归纳出不考虑任务修复时间的具体分布类型时复杂可修串联系统可信度的计算方法，同时也给出了任务维修度的统计推断表达式；最后，以典型的 ４ 部件串联可修系统为例，探讨了致命性故障次数、允许任务修复时间、部件任务修复时间的不同置信上限等的变化对系统可信度的影响，并论证了系统可靠性、维修性和保障性与可信度的关系。
On the basis of setting the fatal failure rate of each component as a constant and determining the upper confidence limit of the repair time of each component, the probability of component failure rate is obtained by describing the probability state of multiple fatal failure events that may occur. The reliability of the system, and then based on the credibility of the modeling principle, the complexity of repairable series system credibility calculation method is not considered when the specific distribution type of task repair time, but also given the task of maintenance Finally, a typical 4-component series repairable system is taken as an example to discuss the changes of the number of fatal failures, the time of task recovery, the different upper confidence limits of the repair time of components, Influence, and demonstrated the system reliability, maintainability and security and credibility of the relationship.