本世纪初肺癌死亡还比较少见,但现已成为最严重的卫生问题之一。过去40年,肺和支气管癌是美国男性最常见的癌亡原因;近20年来,它已成为美国女性占第二位的癌亡原因。由于肺癌是全美国癌症死亡的主要癌肿,所以如何减少肺癌死亡是癌症控制的优先项目。本文目的是预测本世纪末和下世纪头30年肺癌死亡情况。近几十年出现两种现象,可能影响80年代及以后的肺癌死亡。近来资料表明,美国男性吸烟现象已明显减少,女性也在缓慢减少。吸 Lung cancer deaths are still rare at the turn of the century, but have now become one of the most serious health problems. Over the past 40 years, lung and bronchogenic cancer are the most common cause of cancer in men in the United States; for almost 20 years, it has become the leading cause of cancer among American women. As lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States, reducing lung cancer deaths is a priority for cancer control. This article aims to predict lung cancer deaths by the end of this century and the next 30 years. Two phenomena have appeared in recent decades, which may affect the death of lung cancer in the 1980s and beyond. Recent data show that smoking among men in the United States has been significantly reduced, and women are also slowly declining. Suck