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为探究黄河内蒙段干流的流量演进过程,基于该河段干流各水文站1987~2011年实测逐日流量资料,依据水量平衡原理,利用灰色关联分析法推求流量传播时间,并采用马斯京根新建模法模拟黄河内蒙段干流的流量演进,分别建立了该河段畅流期不同流量级别和不同时段的流量演算模型,分析预报了该河段畅流期的流量过程。结果表明,不同模型模拟的流量过程与实测系列均吻合,模拟结果的预报精度均达到了预报精度要求,且根据不同流量级别建立的模型精度更高,更易于实际应用操作。
In order to explore the flow evolution process of the main stream in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River, based on the measured daily flow data from 1987 to 2011 of each hydrological station in the main section of the Yellow River, according to the water balance principle, the gray relational analysis method was used to estimate the flow propagation time. The modeling method was used to simulate the flow evolution of the main stream in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River. The flow calculation models of different flow levels and different periods of the river section were established respectively, and the flow process during the free flow period was analyzed and predicted. The results show that the flow process simulated by different models is in good agreement with the measured series, and the prediction accuracy of the simulation results reaches the prediction accuracy requirements. The model established according to different flow levels has higher precision and is more practical to operate.