资产评估是决策的关键因素。储量分类定义(石油资产评估的准则)使人们有意识地得出保守的储量估算值。另外无意中也会产生某些倾向性(实际上是错误)许多评估工程师并不了解他们采用的基本统计过程。本文描述储量估算过程中使用概率性方法产生的两个问题。其一是合计资产,新的SPE/WPT储量定义明确了这一问题,尽管没有给出更多的指导。我们能根据概算储量获得探明储量吗?资产的探测影响它的储量吗?我们能通过累计概算储量或可能的储量得到探明储量吗?提出这些问题的专业人员已经认可了对这些问题的不同层次的理解并持有关于最佳实践的不同观点随之而来的第二个问题是提高精度。对于作出决策来说,货币值比储量更重要,我们怎样才能获得最大价值?价格和其它经济条件是关键因素。在概率性储量评估中,概率分布表示了对不确定性的判断。用概率计算获得的预测值使评估更加完善和准确 Assets assessment is a key factor in decision making. The definition of reserves classification (guidelines for the assessment of oil assets) enables people to consciously conclude conservative estimates of reserves. Inadvertently, there will also be some propensity (in fact, wrong) Many assessment engineers do not understand the basic statistical processes they use. This article describes two problems that arise from the use of probabilistic methods in reserves estimation. One is aggregating assets, and the new SPE / WPT stock definition clearly identifies this issue, although it does not give much guidance. Can we get proved reserves based on the estimated reserves? Does the exploration of assets affect its reserves? Can we get the proven reserves by accumulating the estimated or probable reserves? Professionals who ask these questions have recognized the differences between these issues The second issue that comes with a hierarchy of understanding and holding different perspectives on best practices is improving accuracy. For the sake of making decisions, monetary values ​​are more important than reserves and how can we get the most value? Prices and other economic conditions are key factors. In the probabilistic reserve assessment, the probability distribution represents the judgment of the uncertainty. The predictions obtained from probabilistic calculations make the assessment more complete and accurate