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电力工业的市场化改革一方面为发电投资决策带来了更多的不确定性因素以及由此而引起的风险,另一方面也给政府主管部门或监管机构带来新的挑战,即应如何设计有效的市场机制以保证系统的发电容量充裕性进而供电可靠性。假定在投资者制定发电投资决策时所面对的不确定性因素主要来自于负荷增长的前提下,基于实物期权理论,构造了适用于电力市场环境下发电投资决策的新的方法框架,建立了相应的数学模型,提出了求解方法。该方法框架可以处理多个投资者参与发电投资的情形。在此基础上,研究了单一能量市场模式、容量费用模式和装机容量市场模式对发电投资决策进而整个系统发电容量充裕性的影响。最后,用仿真算例说明了该方法的基本特征。
On the one hand, the market-oriented reform of the power industry has brought more uncertainty factors and the resulting risks to power generation investment decisions. On the other hand, it has also brought new challenges to the government departments or regulatory agencies, that is, how To design an effective market mechanism to ensure that the system capacity sufficient to generate electricity and power supply reliability. Assuming that the uncertainties faced by investors in power generation investment decision mainly come from the load growth, based on the real option theory, a new method framework for power generation investment decision-making in power market environment is constructed and established Corresponding to the mathematical model, a solution method is proposed. This methodological framework can handle the multiple investors involved in power generation investments. On this basis, the effects of the single energy market model, the capacity cost model and the installed capacity market model on the abundance of power generation capacity of the entire system are determined. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the basic characteristics of this method.