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基于林分生理过程的3-PG模型广泛应用于不同类型的林分生长预测及模拟森林经营和气候变化等的影响。本文以吉林省和龙、舒兰、通化、汪清、长春林区内15块长白落叶松人工林固定样地为对象,基于气候、土壤、林分生长等观测数据,运用3-PG模型模拟了研究区内长白落叶松的生物量及其分配,并模拟了CO2浓度升高对生物量的影响。结果表明:3-PG模型能够较好地模拟林分蓄积和干生物量的生长变化,除叶生物量外(R2 = 0.39),各指标的预测值与实际值模型的R2在0.62-0.86之间,平均相对误差和相对均方根误差均小于15%。因此,该模型可以用于长白落叶松人工林的生长模拟。参数敏感性分析表明:土壤肥力等级和生物量分配参数是该模型的关键参数。研究还发现长白落叶松人工林的生物量随CO2浓度升高而增加。
3-PG models based on stand physiological processes are widely used in different types of stand growth prediction and simulation of forest management and climate change. In this paper, fifteen fixed stands of Larix olgensis plantations in Heilongjiang, Heilongjiang, Shulan, Tonghua, Wangqing and Changchun were studied. Based on the observed data of climate, soil and stand growth, the 3-PG model was used to simulate The biomass and distribution of Larix olgensis were studied, and the effects of elevated CO2 on biomass were simulated. The results showed that the 3-PG model could well simulate the growth changes of stand volume and dry biomass, with the exception of the leaf biomass (R2 = 0.39). The R2 of the predicted and actual values of each index ranged from 0.62 to 0.86 Between, the average relative error and the relative root mean square error are less than 15%. Therefore, the model can be used to simulate the growth of Larix olgensis plantations. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that soil fertility level and biomass allocation parameters are the key parameters of this model. The study also found that the biomass of Larix olgensis plantations increased with the increase of CO2 concentration.