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目的分析某省省级工伤医疗保险参保单位工伤职工人数的变化规律,预测其未来一年的工伤职工数量。方法应用SPSS 13.0对2005-2009年的工伤职工数建立ARIMA模型,分析其分布规律,并预测2010年的工伤职工人数。结果模型ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,2,0)12是合适的,参数具有统计学意义。结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合工伤人数的变化规律,为工伤事故预防提供有效依据。
Objective To analyze the variation of the number of workers injured in the insured units of provincial industrial injury medical insurance and forecast the number of workers injured in the next year. Methods Applying SPSS 13.0 to establish the ARIMA model for the number of workers injured in work from 2005 to 2009, analyzing the distribution rules and forecasting the number of workers injured in work in 2010. Results The model ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,2,0) 12 is appropriate and the parameters are statistically significant. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well fit the variation rule of occupational injuries and provide an effective basis for prevention of industrial accidents.