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现代产业经济发展的一个重要特征就是产业在空间分布出现聚集现象,因此有必要客观度量我国乳业扩张进程中产业空间布局的差异性特征。利用1998-2008年中国乳品制造业的基本经济指标,运用泰尔指数法和聚类分析方法,对我国乳品制造业的空间布局从发展水平差异性和专业化程度差异性两个视角进行测度。计算结果表明,从产业发展水平来看,近年来各省纷纷发展乳业,泰尔指数呈现下降趋势,乳业发展在我国出现空间分布的均等化趋势。从专业化程度来看,聚类分析的结果表明我国四类地区的专业化水平的空间分布存在波动性。研究结果显示,我国乳业的区域空间分布存在一定的不确定性因素。就我国乳业的空间布局而言,部分省区发展乳业违背了产业发展的自身规律,成为影响乳业安全的不稳定因素。
An important feature of the economic development of modern industry is that industry is aggregated in the spatial distribution. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively measure the different characteristics of industrial spatial distribution in the process of China’s dairy expansion. Using the basic economic indicators of China’s dairy industry from 1998 to 2008, the paper uses the Theil index method and cluster analysis method to measure the spatial distribution of China’s dairy industry from two different perspectives: the level of development difference and the level of specialization. The results show that, in terms of the level of industrial development, the provinces have successively developed dairy industry in recent years. The Theil index shows a downward trend. The development of dairy industry in our country appears an equalization trend of spatial distribution. From the perspective of specialization, the results of cluster analysis show that the spatial distribution of the specialization level of the four types of regions in our country is volatile. The results show that there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of dairy industry in China. In terms of the spatial layout of China’s dairy industry, the development of dairy industry in some provinces and autonomous regions runs counter to the laws governing industrial development and becomes an unstable factor affecting the dairy industry’s safety.