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连续两年粮食增产后,自2005年下半年以来,我国主要粮食品种价格出现下降,特别是2006年夏粮丰收之后,主产区小麦价格下降较多。针对这种情况,有人认为现在粮食多了,如果再刺激粮食生产有可能回到1998年“供过于求”状态,托市收购还可能使国家财政的“粮食包袱”越背越沉；也有人认为,当前粮食产量并不多,年度产需还有缺口,理应继续增加粮食产量。在连续几年丰收后市场出现复杂变化的情况下,如何把握当前的粮食价格和供求形势,对今后的粮食生产和宏观调控至关重要。
After two consecutive years of grain production increase, since the second half of 2005, the prices of China’s major grain varieties have declined. Especially after the summer grain harvest in 2006, the price of wheat in the main producing areas dropped more. In view of this situation, some people think that there is now too much food. If the stimulation of food production is likely to return to the state of “oversupply” in 1998, the takeover bid may also make the “financial burden” of the state finance more and more heavy. Some people think that, At present, the output of grain is not large and there is still a gap in annual production and demand. It is reasonable to continue to increase grain output. In the case of complex market changes after several years of harvest, it is of crucial importance to grasp the current grain prices and the demand and supply situation for future grain production and macro control.