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本文选取1970—1980年7—9月31个南海台风的资料,挑选出与台风关系密切的环境流场因子及台风前期移速变化的三个层次八个因子。经过标准化处理,建立各因子样本的隶属度函数,并采用相关系数法作标定公式,求出模糊关系矩阵R,且进行复合运算直至R矩阵具有传递性为止。根据客观分类、归并,将31个影响广东沿海地区的台风分成三个类型。然后将1981—1985年6个南海台风个例和三个太平洋台风个例进行验证,正确率均为80％,效果尚令人满意。
In this paper, 31 typhoon data of South China Sea from July to September in 1970-1980 are selected, and the environmental flow field factors closely related to typhoon and the three levels of typhoon velocity changes are selected. After standardized processing, the membership function of each factor sample is established, and the correlation coefficient method is used to calibrate the formula to obtain the fuzzy relation matrix R, and the compound operation is performed until the R matrix is transitive. According to the objective classification and merger, 31 typhoons affecting the coastal areas of Guangdong are divided into three types. Then, six South China Sea typhoon cases and three Pacific typhoon cases from 1981 to 1985 were verified, with the correct rates of 80% and satisfactory results.