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产业同构化可能造成区域间产业升级优化和彼此合作发展的瓶颈。选取闽台为研究对象,从三次产业、制造业和第三产业内部结构三个方面着手,应用相似系数指标,分别从静态与动态的角度分析闽台产业同构的现状与变化,并在此基础上,依据分形理论中的R/S分析方法,预测两地产业同构化的未来发展趋势。结果显示,闽台产业同构现象显著,如果在原有条件下继续发展,未来三次产业同构化程度将继续加大,制造业相似性总体上将呈现波动加强态势,第三产业结构同构化程度继续缓慢减小。然而闽台产业同构具有其内在必然性,相似的资源禀赋、日益接近的经济发展水平以及日益紧密的经济联系对产业同构的形成产生了正面影响;同时,产业同构也揭示了闽台产业分工已经由垂直分工向水平分工方向发展。因此宏观层面的产业同构未必给闽台未来经济合作产生明显的负面影响。
Isomorphism of industries may cause bottlenecks in industrial upgrading, optimization and cooperation among regions. This paper chooses Fujian and Taiwan as the research object, and from the aspects of tertiary industry, manufacturing industry and the internal structure of the tertiary industry, analyzes the status quo and changes of the industrial isomorphism between Fujian and Taiwan separately from the static and dynamic perspectives, Based on the R / S analysis method in fractal theory, we predict the future development trend of isomorphism of the two industries. The results show that the industrial isomorphism between Fujian and Taiwan is significant. If the economy continues to develop under the original conditions, the degree of isomorphism in the next three industries will continue to increase. The similarity in manufacturing industry as a whole will show an upward trend. The tertiary industry structure isomorphism The degree continues to slowly decrease. However, the isomorphism of Fujian and Taiwan isomorphism has its inherent inevitability, similar resource endowment, the increasingly close level of economic development and increasingly close economic relations have a positive impact on the formation of industrial isomorphism; at the same time, the same structure of industry also reveals that Fujian and Taiwan industries Division of labor has been from the vertical division of labor to the horizontal division of labor development. Therefore, macro-level industrial isomorphism does not necessarily have a clear negative impact on the future economic cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan.