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[目的]本文探索ENSO事件与南昌霍乱暴发的关系。[方法]利用1977～2008年ENSO资料和1978～2007年逐年南昌霍乱发病资料进行Morlet小波分析和统计分析。[结果]ENSO事件和南昌霍乱发病率都存在5年左右周期的主波,其相关性比较好;强ENSO暖事件发生后的第二年和中等强度及以上的ENSO冷事件发生的当年,霍乱发病率都比较高,并且,ENSO事件越强,霍乱发病率越高;在同一年内ENSO暖事件向冷事件转换震荡,霍乱病例几乎都会发生,且转换震荡越强,霍乱病例越多。[结论]ENSO事件与南昌霍乱暴发的相关很好。
[Objective] This study explored the relationship between ENSO incident and outbreak of cholera in Nanchang. [Method] Morlet wavelet analysis and statistical analysis were conducted by using ENSO data from 1977 to 2008 and the incidence of cholera in Nanchang from 1978 to 2007. [Results] Both the incidence of ENSO events and the incidence of cholera in Nanchang all existed the main wave with a period of about 5 years. The relativity was good. In the second year after the strong ENSO warm event and the ENSO cold event with moderate intensity and above, the cholera The incidence of cholera was high, and the stronger the ENSO event was, the higher the incidence of cholera was. In the same year, ENSO warm event was transformed and shocked to the cold event. Cholera cases almost always occurred, and the stronger the conversion shock, the more cholera cases. [Conclusion] The correlation between ENSO event and cholera outbreak in Nanchang is good.