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本文选用某一给定地区三个连续时间段上地震活动性的六个基本统计指标,即地震的总次数N,最大震级M,地震频变与震级关系式中的系数r以及它们随时间的变化量N、M、r,从而算出下一个时间段上发生较大地震的总概率P_1。总概率P_1可用来对该地区较大地震的发震时间作统计预报。作为例子,探索了我国南北地震带银川——松潘段的M≥4.5地震(预报期在一个月之内)及我国西部二省(滇、川)的M_S≥7.0地震(预报期在一年之内)。初步结果表明,这种预报方法在实践中是可以使用的。
This paper selects six basic statistical indicators of seismicity in three consecutive time periods in a given area: the total number of earthquakes N, the maximum magnitude M, the coefficient r in the relationship between seismic frequency change and magnitude, and their relationship with time The amount of change N, M, r, thus calculating the next time period of the greater probability of occurrence of a large earthquake P_1. The total probability P_1 can be used to make statistical forecast on the occurrence time of major earthquakes in this area. As an example, the M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in the Yinchuan-Songpan section of the north-south seismic belt in China (within a month of prediction period) and the M_S ≥ 7.0 earthquake in the two provinces of western China (Dian and Chuan) (the prediction period of one year Inside). The preliminary results show that this method can be used in practice.