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重力模型是地理学的经典模型之一,常用于解释和预测人口、货物、交通、财富等的移动现象。其中Huff模型被广泛用于预测商圈规模,但目前多数研究以商场的面积作为吸引力的度量指标,不能准确反映商场真实的吸引力,造成模型预测的误差。本文针对Huff模型常使用规模表达商圈吸引力的不足,在对购物中心吸引力进行总结的基础上,选择了深圳市5个具有代表性的大型购物中心(或商圈)进行问卷调查。利用因子分析方法识别出6个影响购物中心吸引力的因子:可达性因子、环境因子、私家车出行因子、多功能因子、商品因子和个人特征因子。基于主成分Logistic模型,分析购物中心吸引力的显著影响因素及权重。最后,通过对比不同参照系下购物中心的显著性因素,对商圈吸引力因子进行可靠性检验。本文的分析方法及结果可为Huff模型等的精细化建模提供基础。
Gravity model is one of the classic geography models and is often used to explain and predict the movement of population, goods, traffic, wealth and so on. The Huff model is widely used to predict the size of the business district. However, most of the studies currently use the size of the shopping mall as a measure of attractiveness, which can not accurately reflect the true attractiveness of the shopping mall and cause errors in model prediction. In this paper, Huff model is often used scale to express the attractiveness of shopping district. On the basis of summing up the attractiveness of shopping mall, five representative large shopping centers (or shopping districts) in Shenzhen are selected for questionnaire survey. Using factor analysis method to identify six factors that affect shopping attraction: reachability factor, environmental factor, private car travel factor, multipurpose factor, commodity factor and personal characteristic factor. Based on the principal component Logistic model, we analyzed the significant influence factors and weights of shopping center attraction. Finally, by comparing the significant factors of different shopping malls in different frame of reference, the reliability of the shopping district attractiveness factor is tested. The analysis method and result of this paper can provide the basis for the refinement modeling of Huff model.