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为了研究突发事件下出行者进行路径选择的行为规律,引入前景理论建立了出行者行为决策模型。首先分析了事故消散时间,建立了事故消散时间模型。然后分析了出行者行为决策过程,搭建了出行者行为决策框架。进一步采用前景理论,分别针对出行者收益和损失,提出了出行者路径选择的效用函数,并采用连续离散的方式对路径效用进行了分析。最后建立了出行者路径选择模型,对出行者行为进行刻画。通过一个仿真算例,在假定的出行场景下,研究了出行者有限理性路径决策行为,分析了期望出行时间对事故消散时间和路径选择结果的影响。采用试验对比的方法,证明了仿真结果和试验结果的一致性,验证了有限理性决策在出行者路径选择领域的适用性。
In order to study the behavioral law of travelers’ choice of route under emergencies, this paper introduces the theory of foreground to establish the behavioral decision-making model of travelers. First of all, it analyzes the time of dissipating accident and establishes the model of dissipating time of accident. Then, it analyzes the behavior decision-making process of travelers and constructs the behavior decision-making framework of travelers. With the help of the theory of foreground, the utility function of traveler’s route selection is put forward respectively according to the return and loss of the traveler, and the utility of the route is analyzed in a continuous and discrete way. Finally, a model of traveler’s route selection is established to describe the traveler’s behavior. Through a simulation example, under the scenario of assumed travel, the behavior of the traveler’s bounded rationality is studied, and the influence of expected travel time on the dissipation time and the path selection result is analyzed. The experimental comparison is used to prove the consistency between the simulation results and the experimental results. The applicability of the bounded rationality decision in the field of traveler’s route selection is verified.