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基于高速公路网国民经济发展乘数效应测算思路与具体步骤,采用投入产出法对无高速公路效应期、高速公路带效应期和高速公路网效应期的公路发展国民经济乘数效应进行了测算与比较。通过对相关历史数据进行有或无高速公路网差异性回归分析和回归模型有效性检验,发现指数回归模型和Logistic函数回归模型具有同等级的最小相对误差与最高显著性,可作为测度我国高速公路网国民经济乘数效应的回归增量预测模型。测算结果表明,高速公路网效应引致的国民经济发展呈快速上升趋势。
Based on the calculation and concrete steps of national economy development multiplier effect of expressway network, this paper uses the input-output method to calculate the multiplier effect of highway development national economy without highway effect period, expressway belt effect period and expressway network effect period Compared with. Through the analysis of the relevant historical data with or without expressway network differential regression analysis and the regression model validity test, it is found that the exponential regression model and the Logistic regression model have the same level of minimum relative error and the highest significance, which can be used as a measure of China’s expressway Regression Incremental Prediction Model of Multiplication Effect of National Economic Net. The calculation results show that the national economy caused by the effect of expressway network shows a rapid upward trend.