【摘 要】
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Historically,automobile insurance premiums in the U.S.were largely based on various static factors,such as socio-demographic and geographical information.Advances in the development of modern GPS devi
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Historically,automobile insurance premiums in the U.S.were largely based on various static factors,such as socio-demographic and geographical information.Advances in the development of modern GPS devices have led some insurers to start looking into variations of Usage Based Insurance(UBI)or Pay-As-You-Drive-And-You-Save(PAYDAYS)research.While these efforts(such as progressive “snapshot” program)can be considered a major leap forward,one could argue that most researchers and practitioners currently rely solely on user GPS trajectories,without considering other critical risk factors in the surrounding environment that may also contribute to crash risk,i.e.the context-sensitive risk factors.For example,if a driver exhibits stop-and-go or abrupt accelerate/decelerate behavior,without supplemental information on traffic conditions,it is usually difficult to tell if this is simply due to the drivers behavior or caused by heavy traffic conditions.In this 3-year research project titled "Pay-As-You-Drive-And-You-Save Insurance Actuarial Study" sponsored by Federal Highway Administration(FHWA),we collected a total of 131,537 trips taken by 503 panel members over an 18-month period,combined with geographical network information and dynamic traffic conditions,to identify driving risk factors and evaluate driving behaviors under various contexts.The findings of our study can further existing knowledge about driving exposure factors that are closely linked to crash risk,help insurers restructure their existing pricing models to allow for variation in premiums based on individualized driving characteristics,and provide the actuarial foundation for advanced forms of PAYDAYS insurance pricing.
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