基于贝叶斯概率预报的水库汛限水位实时动态控制研究

来源 :第十届中国水论坛 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户：nestle

【摘要】

：

实时洪水预报精度较高是实施汛限水位动态控制的基础,其不确定性又是动态控制的主要风险源.针对洪水预报不确定,采用贝叶斯水文不确定性处理器将确定性预报转化为概率预报;针对入库洪水预报精度较高,建立了考虑未来洪水大小的三峡水库汛限水位实时控制模型.应用结果表明,相对于原设计调度方案,实时动态模型根据预报洪水大小执行不同的预蓄预泄策略,在不增加防洪风险的前提下可显著地提高水库的发电效益.基于贝叶斯修正的概

【作者】

：

李响郭生练张洪刚刘德地

【机构】

：

长江水利委员会水文局,武汉武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉

【出处】

：

第十届中国水论坛

【发表日期】

：

2012年6期

【关键词】

：

水库汛限水位洪水预报贝叶斯概率预报

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基于贝叶斯概率预报的水库汛限水位实时动态控制研究

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