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针对高堆石坝施工期风险随施工进程而变化的问题,以水布垭堆石坝工程为例,先利用WBS-RBS对其进行风险辨识,再根据风险辨识结果,采用层次分析法(AHP)和风险度理论计算各子工程的风险度;同时考虑施工组织设计和工程特性,将施工期分为四个施工阶段,将子工程及其风险度在各施工阶段进行分配;最后对各施工阶段进行对比分析,通过总体风险度、平均风险度、控制性工程三个指标衡量各施工阶段的风险特性,找出了各施工阶段间的风险变化规律。结果表明,该方法有效可行,为高堆石坝工程施工期动态风险分析提供了依据。
Aiming at the problem that the risk of construction of high rockfill dam varies with the construction process, taking the Shuibuya Rockfill Dam Project as an example, the risk identification of the rockfill dam is carried out by using WBS-RBS first. Then AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) ) And risk theory to calculate the risk of each sub-project; taking into account the construction design and engineering characteristics, the construction period is divided into four construction phases, the sub-project and its risk distribution in the construction phase; Finally, the construction Stage comparative analysis, through the overall risk, average risk, control engineering three indicators to measure the risk characteristics of each construction phase, to identify the risk of changes between the various construction stages. The results show that this method is effective and feasible, which provides the basis for dynamic risk analysis of high rockfill dam during construction.