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本文对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊以西发生MW9.0级地震后所做的地震趋势预测做了反思,指出:关于全球特大地震近年可能连发,特大地震对几年内世界7级以上地震年频度没有明显影响,但未来几年内7级以上强震可能集中在这次特大地震附近或相关构造上的预测意见是正确的;而有关近年中国大陆及川滇地区可能发生7级强震的预测是错误的;并认为,2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震释放了已积累的应变可能是这次特大地震不能触发中国大陆及川滇地区发生强震的重要原因。
This paper reflects on the prediction of the earthquake tendency after the Mw9.0 earthquake west of Sumatra, Indonesia on December 26, 2004, and points out that with respect to the earthquakes that may occur in recent years, But there is no obvious influence on frequency. However, the predicted opinions that strong earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above may be concentrated in the vicinity of these extra-large earthquakes or related structures in the next few years are correct. However, prediction of the possible occurrence of a magnitude 7 strong earthquake in mainland China, Sichuan and Yunnan in recent years Is wrong. It is also believed that the released strain accumulated during the 2001 West Kunlun Mountain Pass M8.1 earthquake may be the important reason why this extraordinary earthquake can not trigger strong earthquakes in China, Sichuan and Yunnan.