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目的探讨厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市鼻咽癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010-2014年厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2010-2014年,厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率2.27/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.83倍。鼻咽癌造成的AYLL为16.95年。厦门市鼻咽癌死亡率能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.90%~8.32%间,无法拟合AYLL的预测模型。预测2015-2017年鼻咽癌死亡率略有下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率的预测,鼻咽癌仍是造成厦门市居民早死的重要原因,不能放松鼻咽癌的预防控制工作。
Objective To explore the trends of death and life loss of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen residents, and provide basis for comprehensive prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen. Methods Eighty-five evaluation indicators of mortality, average number of year-neutral years (AYLL), average annual percentage change of death rate of nasopharyngeal cancer in Xiamen residents from 2010 to 2014 were collected, and mortality rate and AYLL were calculated using GM(1,1) model. Make predictions. Results From 2010 to 2014, the death rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen residents was 2.27/100,000, and the male mortality rate was 2.83 times that of women. The AYLL caused by nasopharyngeal cancer was 16.95 years. The mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen can fit the GM(1,1) model, and the average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value is between 2.90% and 8.32%, and the AYLL prediction model cannot be fitted. The nasopharyngeal cancer mortality rate for 2015-2017 is forecast to decline slightly. Conclusion The GM(1,1) model can be used to predict the mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen residents. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is still an important cause of premature death in Xiamen residents. The prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma cannot be relaxed.