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目的:研究评估改良的POSSUM(Portsmouth-POSSUM,P-POSSUM)在食管癌患者术后死亡风险中预测能力。方法:对2012年1月到2012年12月四川省肿瘤医院556例接受食管癌手术的患者进行回顾性分析,收集资料进行P-POSSUM评分,预测术后死亡发生率,与实际值进行比较,并用实际例数/预测例数(O/E值)及ROC曲线验证该评分系统的预测能力。结果:P-POSSUM评分预测的死亡发生率为5.22%(29例),与实际的死亡发生率3.42%(19例)比较,差异无统计学意义(χ~2=2.177,P=0.140),O/E为0.66,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.713,P=0.002。结论:P-POSSUM评分在食管癌术后死亡风险方面具有较好的预测能力,对临床诊治具有一定指导意义。
PURPOSE: To evaluate the predictive ability of a modified POSSUM (Portsmouth-POSSUM, P-POSSUM) for the risk of postoperative death in esophageal cancer patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 556 patients undergoing esophagectomy in Sichuan Cancer Hospital from January 2012 to December 2012 was conducted. P-POSSUM scores were collected and the incidence of postoperative death was estimated, and compared with the actual value. The predictive ability of this scoring system was verified by the actual number of cases / predicted cases (O / E value) and ROC curve. Results: The P-POSSUM score predicted the death rate was 5.22% (29 cases), which was not significantly different from the actual death rate (3.42%, 19 cases) (χ ~ 2 = 2.177, P = 0.140) The O / E was 0.66 and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.713, P = 0.002. Conclusion: The P-POSSUM score has good predictive ability in postoperative death risk of esophageal cancer, which is of guiding significance in clinical diagnosis and treatment.