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在粮食危机期间,许多粮食主产国采取粮食贸易调控政策,稳定粮食价格的波动。通过构建非对称误差修正模型,对比中美两国大豆价格对豆油价格正向与负向的冲击,发现中美两国大豆产业链的价格传递,在正常状态和危机状态下均为非对称传递。美国豆油市场对当期大豆价格的变动更加敏感,中国大豆价格涨跌对豆油市场的影响更持久;中国大豆加工业在大豆贸易政策期间加强了自身的地位,且倾向于提前大量收购大豆的趋利行为。因此,应在调控政策实施期间,将大豆加工业的行为偏好纳入考虑范围,并加强规范和引导,促进大豆加工业健康发展。
During the food crisis, many major food producing countries adopted grain trade control policies to stabilize the fluctuations in food prices. Through the construction of the asymmetric error correction model, comparing the positive and negative impact of soybean prices in China and the United States on the price of soybean oil, we find that the price transmission of the soybean industry chain between China and the United States is asymmetric transmission under both normal and crisis conditions . The US soybean oil market is more sensitive to changes in the current soybean prices. The impact of soybean prices in China on the soybean oil market is more lasting. China’s soybean processing industry has strengthened its position during the soybean trade policy and tends to buy more soybeans in advance behavior. Therefore, during the implementation of regulatory policies, the behavioral preferences of soybean processing industry should be taken into consideration and the norms and guidance should be strengthened so as to promote the healthy development of soybean processing industry.