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国外经济界人士认为,1997年中国的经济增长点将首先始于区域而非产业。理由是中国经济发展已形成区域性失衡,地区差别增大,其不良后果远大于产业结构不合理所产生的影响,所以在启动阶段,选择区域先行增长优于实行产业调整,而且区域增长包括了丰富的内容和一些综合性的东西,其本身就含有平衡发展的意思。 此理不虚。回顾改革开放以来的历程,中国每一轮经济增长的启动都是从地区经济的优先发展开始的,随着发展波的扩散然后带动各个产业的相继发展。这一效应比单纯调整的力度要大。而且更有力的解释是,国家目前不大可能出台新的以调整为主的产业优惠政策,对国企则强调资产重组,对外资逐步实行国民待遇,对于住宅建设这样的支柱产业也只是采取一定的措施减少不合理收费。在这样的前提下,由某一产业来带动整个经济发展的局面并不会出现。
Foreign economic figures believe that in 1997 China’s economic growth point will first start in the region rather than industry. The reason is that the development of China’s economy has become a regional imbalance and the regional differences have been widened. The unhealthy consequences are much larger than those caused by the unreasonable industrial structure. Therefore, at the start-up stage, the choice of regional first growth is better than the implementation of industrial restructuring, and the regional growth includes Rich content and some comprehensive things, itself contains the meaning of balanced development. This is true. After reviewing the history of reform and opening up, the starting of each round of economic growth in China started with the priority of regional economy. With the spread of development wave, it promoted the successive development of various industries. This effect is greater than the simple adjustment. And a more forceful explanation is that the state is not likely to issue any new preferential industrial policies mainly based on adjustment. For state-owned enterprises, they emphasize reorganization of assets and the gradual implementation of national treatment of foreign capital, and only take a certain amount of support for such pillar industries as housing construction Measures to reduce unreasonable charges. Under such a premise, the situation in which the entire economy is driven by an industry does not arise.