“2014就是拐点”、“房市即将崩盘”、“房价大跌50%”之类的观点,最近颇为盛行。其实,房价问题并没有那么复杂,中国房价狂飙的根本原因是2009年以来持续的宽松货币环境,因为任何资产泡沫都是货币现象。历史上,所有房产泡沫的破裂都是发生在货币紧缩和加息周期之中。因此,房价和货币供给是正相关关系,其拐点取决于中国货币环境的拐点。中国宽松货币环境是否已经进入拐点呢?近期很多人认为是,此观点有两个证据:第一是退出的 “2014 is the inflection point ”, “housing market is about to crash ”, “house prices fell 50% ” and the like point of view, recently quite popular. In fact, the housing price issue is not so complicated. The fundamental reason for the soaring housing prices in China is the continuing loose monetary environment since 2009, because any asset bubble is a currency phenomenon. Historically, all the property bubble burst occurred in the monetary tightening and the cycle of rate hikes. Therefore, there is a positive correlation between housing price and money supply. The inflection point depends on the inflection point of China’s monetary environment. China’s loose monetary environment has entered the inflection point it? Recently, many people think that this view has two evidences: the first is to withdraw