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针对复杂变化的空间环境,依据地磁指数Ap和射电辐射流量指数F10.7对空间环境简要分为4类。统计近4个太阳活动周各类型事件,发现扰动型(01、10和11型)事件比例有下降趋势。选取高度约350 km的载人航天轨道(天宫一号),以星载GPS数据作为“测量数据”和“参考轨道”分析其在四种典型空间环境事件前后轨道预报精度和解算阻力系数C_d的变化情况。解算的C_d在00型和10型空间环境下没有明显变化,而在01型和11型空间环境下变化明显,表现为磁扰前1 d下降,磁扰当天及扰后1 d急剧增加。该方法对精细化分析预报误差具有一定的参考意义。
According to the space environment with complex changes, the space environment can be divided into four categories according to the geomagnetic index Ap and the radio frequency radiation flux index F10.7. Statistics of nearly 4 types of events in the solar week showed that there was a downward trend in the proportion of disturbance types (types 01, 10 and 11). The orbital orbit (Tiangong-1) with a height of about 350 km is selected to analyze the orbit prediction accuracy and solution before and after the four typical space environmental events based on the on-board GPS data as the “measurement data” and the “reference track” Drag coefficient C_d changes. The calculated C_d did not change significantly in the type-00 and type-10 spatial environments, but significantly changed in the type-01 and type-11 spatial environments, showing a sharp decrease on the first day and the sharp increase on the day of the disturbance and on the first day after the disturbance. The method has some reference significance for the precision analysis and forecasting error.