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对锅炉四管爆漏专家系统的不确定知识进行分析，提出按主观Bayes方法建立计算模型，并作了简化技术处理，使专家系统具有不确定知识推理能力。
This paper analyzes the uncertain knowledge of expert system of four tubes of boiler and puts forward the calculation model based on subjective Bayes method, and simplifies the technical processing so that the expert system has the ability of indefinite knowledge reasoning.