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本文应用余弦模型对蓬莱县1959～1989年流脑月平均发病率的对数拟合及发病季节特征进行分析,得到简单余弦模型yi=0.1067+1.0135·cos(ti-70.61°),含第二谐量三角多项式yi=0.1067+1.0135cos(ti-70.61°)+0.1566cos(2ti-118.28°),并对实际资料进行拟合,拟合效果良好。求得决定系数R_1~2=0.92,R_2~2=0.99,并求得顶相角=70.61°,表明我县流脑发病高峰在3月25日。
In this paper, the cosine model was used to analyze the monthly mean monthly incidence of MCI in Penglai County from 1959 to 1989 and the seasonal characteristics of onset were analyzed. The simple cosine model yi = 0.1067 + 1.0135 · cos (ti-70.61 °) The harmonic trigonometric polynomial yi = 0.1067 + 1.0135 cos (ti-70.61 °) + 0.1566 cos (2ti-118.28 °), and fitting the actual data, the fitting effect is good. Determine the coefficient of determination R_1 ~ 2 = 0.92, R_2 ~ 2 = 0.99, and the top phase angle = 70.61 °, indicating that the peak incidence of meningitis in the county on March 25.