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The most coveted prospects in the draft -- Andrew Wiggins， Jabari Parker， Joel Embiid， Julius Randle， Aaron Gordon， Noah Vonleh and Tyler Ennis -- are all college freshmen.
在此次选秀中令所有球队都梦寐以求的新秀包括安德鲁·威金斯，贾巴里·帕克，乔尔·恩比德，朱利叶斯·兰德尔，阿隆·戈登，诺阿·冯莱以及泰勒·恩尼斯，都是大一新生。
However， if new NBA commissioner Adam Silver gets his way， they might be the last freshman class to be able to declare for the draft.
无论如何，如果NBA新任总裁亚当·萧华实现了他的想法，这些新秀可能将成为最后一届以大一新生的身份参加选秀的球员。
Longtime NBA commissioner David Stern had tried to raise the NBA age restriction for underclassmen entering the NBA draft ever since his last grand bargain with the National Basketball Players Association （NBPA） in 2005. Silver seems determined to realize Stern’s longtime dream sooner rather than later.
2005年，当和美国篮球运动员协会（NBPA）进行了最后一次谈判后，NBA前任总裁大卫·斯特恩一直试图提高NBA选秀年龄，来限制大学一，二年级的球员参加选秀。萧华似乎已经迫不及待的下定决心来实现斯特恩长久以来的梦想了。
"It has been our sense for a long time that our draft would be more competitive if our teams had an opportunity to see these players play an additional year， whether it be in college or professionally in the Development League or overseas，" Silver told USA Today several weeks ago. "We believe the additional year of maturity would be meaningful."
几周前，萧华在《今日美国》的采访中说：“我们一直都认为如果球队有机会多看球员一年的比赛，无论是在大学、发展联盟或者海外赛场，这都会使球队选秀竞争更加激烈。我们相信，这多一年的成熟会很有意义”
Silver reiterated his point at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on March 1. Asked by author Malcolm Gladwell if he could unilaterally change one aspect of the NBA， Silver said he would raise the age restriction in the NBA.
在3月1号麻省理工学院斯隆体育分析会议上，作家马科尔姆·格莱德威尔向萧华提问如果他能单方改变NBA一个方面的话他会改变什么，萧华重申他会提高NBA的年龄限制。
Currently， players are required to wait one year from the date of their high school graduation before becoming eligible for the draft. For most players， that means they’re draft-eligible after their freshman year of college. Silver would like players to wait two years before declaring for the draft， essentially making them eligible after their sophomore season.
现在，球员们需要在高中毕业后等待一年的时间才有资格参加NBA选秀。这对于大多数球员意味着他们需要等到大一结束后才有资格参与其中。而萧华却希望他们等上两年再来选秀，这本质上是需要球员们读完大二再来参加选秀。
Before the new rule could go into effect， the NBA would have to negotiate with the NBPA. The current NBA age restriction is part of the collective bargaining agreement. It cannot be changed without consent from both the NBA and the NBPA， and there’s the rub. 在新规则生效之前，NBA不得不与NBPA（美国篮球运动员协会）协商谈判。目前的NBA年龄限制是劳资协议条款的一部分，而没有NBA和NBPA的一致同意，劳资协议条款不能改变。而这两组织之间存在摩擦。
The current age restriction was a hardfought concession for the NBPA during the 2005 CBA. Adding an additional year has been a difficult sell to the NBPA in the past.
目前的年龄限制是NBPA（美国篮球运动员协会）在2005年的成本效益分析中做出的一个艰难让步。以往，增加一年的选秀年龄限制已经够NBPA喝一壶了。
But if Silver can get it done （the NBPA will look for some sort of concession from the NBA for it to happen） the 2015 NBA draft could look very different from drafts of the past decade.
但是如果萧华能够实现这个设想（NBPA会努力让NBA同样做出一些让步从而使这个设想实现），那么2015年的NBA选秀大会将会与过去十年的选秀大不一样。
Freshmen have become a staple at the top of the draft since the current age restriction rule was implemented nearly a decade ago.
由于目前年龄限制已经实施了近10年，大一新生已成为了选秀中的中坚力量。
In 2006 -- the first year high school seniors were barred from the draft -- only one college freshman， LSU’s Tyrus Thomas， was taken in the lottery. That number jumped to seven in 2007. In fact， three of the first four picks in the draft were college freshmen， led by Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In 2008， four of the first five players in the draft were freshmen and a total of eight were taken in the lottery.
2006年——高三毕业生被禁止参加选秀的第一年——只有一名大一新生，泰鲁斯·托马斯，进入了选秀。到了2007年这个数字升到了7个。事实上，前4顺位的新秀中有3名大一新生，以格雷格·奥登和凯文·杜兰特为代表。到了2008年，前5顺位中有4名大一新生，在整个选秀中共有8名。
In total， 36 freshmen have been taken in the lottery since 2006. That number will likely jump into the mid-40s this season. Silver’s plan， if he’s successful， will drastically alter the landscape of both the draft and college basketball.
总的来说，2006年来已有36名大一学生通过选秀进入NBA。这个赛季后，这个数字可能会升至40多。如果萧华成功实施了他的计划，将会极大程度的改变选秀和大学篮球。
Silver’s rationale comes directly out of Stern’s textbook. The longer prospects stay in college （or play in the NBDL）， Silver reasons， the more maturity they get as individuals and players and the more marketable they are to fans. It’s about improving the product on the court and selling that product to fans.
萧华的论据直接来自斯特恩的教科书，萧华的理由是，在大学里待的时间越长（或者在NBDL发展联盟打球时间越长），球员会越发成熟，有更大的成长和更多的球迷。其实这就是先在球场上提高产品质量，再销售给球迷。
But is it a good idea？
但是这是个好主意吗？
I spoke to a number of NBA GMs， coaches and player agents to get their take. All asked that their comments be off the record. As you might expect， there was a variety of responses. It appears Silver will have strong support among many NBA front offices. He’ll have even stronger support among coaches. However， as you can imagine， player agents are against it unless the NBA is willing to offer significant concessions in return. 我和许多NBA经理，教练及经纪人交流，试图听取他们的意见。他们都说不能透露自己的言论。正如你所预料的一样，答案多种多样。萧华的观点似乎会得到NBA高层和教练的大力支持。但是，同样可以想象到球员经纪人却反对提高年龄限制，除非NBA愿意做出有效的让步作为补偿。
Here’s a look at the good， bad and ugly reactions among the people I spoke with.
来看看我采访的人当中，那些支持之声，反对之音，以及难看之处。
Silver isn’t alone in thinking that the NBA can improve its product by increasing the league’s age restriction from 19 to 20. Everyone from NBA scouts to coaches sees a number of benefits.
不单单是萧华认为通过将年龄限制19岁提高到20岁能提高联盟质量，从NBA球探到教练的每一个人都看到了很多好处。
"So many of the kids that are coming to the NBA just aren’t ready，" said one NBA head coach. "They don’t know how to play. Their bodies aren’t mature. They aren’t men yet. They are still kids. This is a man’s league. It takes commitment. It takes toughness. It takes cognitive ability that these young men don’t have yet. How can that not improve the game to have them stay another year？ If I had it my way， they’d stay three seasons and be eligible to declare after their junior year."
一位NBA主帅说：“很多来NBA打球的孩子都没有准备好，他们不知道如何在NBA打球，他们的身体还不够成熟，他们还不是成熟的男人，只是一群孩子。但NBA是一个男子汉的联盟。它需要球员全身心献身其中，需要强健的身体，需要这些年轻孩子都不具备的认知力。为什么说多留大学一年不能让他们提高呢？若按我的方式，我会让他们等三年，等到大三结束后才有资格决定是否参加选秀。
That sentiment was backed up by a number of other coaches who cited everything from emotional to physical maturity. College， they argue， teaches you more than basketball. It teaches responsibility. It teaches problem solving. It teaches hard work and how to handle the media. The longer players stay， the more committed they become to improving themselves instead of looking at college as a temporary rest stop on the way to the NBA.
这个观点被许多教练支持，他们认为大学生涯使球员生理和心理更成熟。他们的主张是，大学教给你的不仅仅是篮球，还教会你如何解决问题，如何刻苦工作，如何应对媒体。在大学停留的时间越长，大学越是会完善球员，而不再仅仅是通往NBA的临时休息站。
"I think many college coaches can’t really coach the young kids the way they want to because of the one-and-done rule，" another coach told ESPN. "They have to cater to the mindset that is focused on the NBA. Forcing them to stay another year or two gives coaches more time to teach， to discipline and to really coach these young people. So many young players come into the league without the ability to take coaching. I think the one-anddone rule has helped foster that culture."
另外一名教练告诉ESPN：“我认为由于孩子们在大学打一年就走，许多大学教练无法教给孩子他们想传达的东西，而不得不迎合孩子们专注于NBA的心态。（这个条款）可以强迫孩子们再待一两年，使大学教练有时间去教他们，管理他们的纪律，真正教他们打球。所以现在许多年轻球员进入联盟后没能力去理解教练的指导。我认为大一新生在大学打一年球就走的情况促进形成了这种文化。”
Sure， that’s a bit of a sweeping generalization. The one-and-done culture didn’t tarnish Kevin Durant， Derrick Rose or Anthony Davis. All of them thrived in the NBA from day one. None of them appears to be uncoachable. But there are enough examples of young players struggling to make the transition that these coaches might have a point. 当然，这有点以偏概全。这种在大学里打一年就走的文化并没有影响凯文·杜兰特，德里克·罗斯和安东尼·戴维斯。他们从第一天进入NBA开始就开始蓬勃发展，没有一个不能被教练教导。但是，有足够的例子来说明年轻球员过渡到NBA的挣扎，教练们对此的观点似乎是正确的。
For many GMs， the concerns are more practical.
对于 NBA经理们来说，对年龄限制的顾虑更加实际。
"The more data you have， the better decisions you can make about players，" one GM said. "That extra year of scouting helps everyone. It helps us see what adjustments a player makes from Year 1 to Year 2. It gives us another 30-plus games to break down. It also helps our analytics people tremendously as all of their formulas are more accurate with the more data they receive. It will make our life easier."
一位总经理说：“你得到的数据越多，你做出的决策就越英明。对球员额外一年的观察对大家来说是很有好处的，它帮助我们发现一名球员从大一到大二有什么进步，它给予了我们额外的30多场比赛来考察。当分析员拥有更多的数据时，得出的公式也就更准确。这使得我们的职业生涯变得更轻松。”
Perhaps. More data certainly shouldn’t hurt （though one can overscout players， too）. But many of the busts at the top of the draft have not been freshmen， but sophomores and juniors who might have been overvalued because of familiarity. Hasheem Thabeet（junior）， Adam Morrison （junior）， Evan Turner（junior）， Derrick Williams （sophomore） and Wesley Johnson （junior） were all top-five picks who didn’t pan out. Teams had plenty of data on them.
也许，更多的数据不会有坏处（也可能会过度的考察球员），但前几位的新秀不是大一新生，而是大二和大三学生时，由于过于熟悉，他们可能会被高估。哈希姆·塔比特（大三），亚当·莫里森（大三），埃文·特纳（大三），德里克·威廉姆斯（大二）和韦斯利·约翰逊（大三）都是前五位的球员，但没在NBA里一帆风顺，虽然球队有关于他们足够多的数据。
Finally， several GMs saw an opportunity to create a real minor league out of the NBDL if the change occurs.
如果成真，一些球队经理看到了一个创造真正的NBDL以外的小联盟的机会。
"I think more players will take a harder look at skipping college and going straight to the D-League，" one GM said. "Especially if we can pay them a little more. Waiting for two years under the restrictions of the NCAA will be a hardship for some. I think if we can get every team owning a D-League franchise， we can really start to do our part to prepare players to play in the NBA. It would be good for the league."
一位经理说：“我认为会有更多球员考虑跳过大学直接进入发展联盟打球，尤其是当他们还能在发展联盟赚点小钱的情况下。在NCAA的年龄限制下等待两年对某些人来说是比较困难的。如果每支球队都在发展联盟中有一支附属球队，我们可以真正的为球员进入NBA做准备。这对于联赛来说是有益的。”
However， not everyone is on board. A number of GMs feel like the NBA is being paternalistic. Good front offices， they argue， know how to find and develop talent. It’s not the players’ fault -- it’s the fault of inept GMs.
无论如何，并不是所有的人都这么认为。有一部分的经理认为NBA变得过于家长式作风。他们认为，好的球队管理层能知道如何挖掘和发展天赋。这不是球员的错——这是不称职的总经理的错误。
"I think it’s an overreaction，" one GM said."Teams that know what they are doing， have the right process and support structure in place， do very well. Adam should spend less time lecturing the NBPA and more time lecturing owners who are spending up to $100 million a year but don’t know how to develop or find good players. Most of the teams that struggle with this just don’t have the right systems in place. What we really need is a developmental league for executives and scouts." 一位球队经理表示：“我认为这反应有点过激了。那些知道自己在做什么的球队有正确的程序和完整的支撑结构，做的非常出色。亚当应该少花点时间去教导NBPA，而应去指导那些每年花1亿美金却不知怎么挖掘或发展优秀球员的NBA球队老板。大多数为此而挣扎的球队只是因为没有正确的系统。我们真正需要的是更为先进的球队管理层和球探。”
Others argue top players don’t necessarily need another year in college， but rather better competition against bigger， faster and more experienced professionals.
其他经理认为顶尖球员不需在大学度过额外的一年，取而代之的应该去好的联赛中，和更强，更快，更有经验的职业球员对抗。
"Another year at school was going to help Kevin Durant？" one NBA scout mused."Derrick Rose needed to beat up on college kids for another year？ At some point your game stagnates unless it is challenged. I can’t see Jabari Parker being better in 2016 if he stayed in college instead of coming directly to the NBA. It’s the better competition that raises his game. And can we quit pretending that the college game and the NBA are the same game？ They’re not. The quicker they learn the NBA game， the better."
“凯文·杜兰特多留校一年会有进步？” 一个球探谨慎地说道，“德里克·罗斯需要再一次击败大学孩子？有些时候如果联赛没有挑战，球员就会停滞不前。我不觉得贾巴里·帕克如果不参加选秀进入NBA而选择留校到2016年还会有什么进步。这是一个能帮助他更进一步的比赛。我们能别再继续认为大学比赛和NBA是同等级别的了吗？它们不是（同等级别的）。这些球员越早进入NBA越好。”
Agents aren’t on board either， but for different reasons.
经纪人也同样觉得提高年龄限制这个想法不好，但有不同的理由。
"If a player is ready for the NBA， they’re ready，" one player agent said. "Why have an arbitrary age limit that treats everyone like they’re equal？ LeBron James was ready. Tyrus Thomas wasn’t. It’s a PR gimmick and everyone knows it. It has nothing to do with what Adam is saying. It has everything to do with using the NCAA to help build a player’s marketability.
一名经纪人说：“如果球员已经准备好打NBA了，既然他们做好了准备，那为什么要对所有人都有相同的年龄限制呢？勒布朗·詹姆斯已经准备好了。泰鲁斯·托马斯没有。这是一个公关噱头，每个人都知道的。这跟亚当说的话没有一点关系。这是一个关于是否用NCAA来增加球员市场竞争力的问题。”
"If you really believe in your teams， let the players and GMs make that call and live with the consequences. Why should a player who wants to come and is ready to come be barred because someone else -- either a team or a player -- made a stupid decision in the past？ Would LeBron really have been better off waiting two years？ Would Durant or Rose somehow have a better career？ NBA careers are short. For the players that are ready， I think they should come when they’re ready. If they’re a junior in high school and they can play， let them come and try."
“如果你真的相信你的球队，那就让球员和总经理通个电话并承担后果。为什么一个球员愿意来，并准备好了，却由于过去可能是球队或其他球员做了愚蠢的决定而被禁止呢？勒布朗真的该再等两年吗？杜兰特或罗斯会因此莫名其妙拥有更好的职业生涯吗？NBA职业生涯很短暂，当球员做好了准备，我认为他们该来。如果他们是高中三年级，但是他们却能打NBA，那就让他们来试试吧。”
The truth is， if new age restrictions do go into effect in 2015， the pain will really be felt in the next draft. 事实上，如果2015年年龄限制提案生效，那么下一届选秀将会感受到与之而来的苦果。
With all the top freshmen bolting for the NBA this year， and with no freshmen to come in and replace them in the draft pool， the 2015 draft would be filled with players who essentially couldn’t cut it in the 2014 draft.For teams that are in the rebuilding process at the moment， it would mean a historically weak draft that would be potentially devastating to the teams with high lottery picks -- essentially punishing teams near the top of the draft with marginal choices.
2014年，当所有的顶尖大一学生进入了NBA选秀，2015年没有新的大一学生参加选秀，也就是说2015年的新秀基本都是2014年落选的球员。
对于目前处于重组中的球队来说，2015年意味着历史上最弱的一次选秀阵容，也将潜在的破坏拥有高顺位选秀权的球队——本质上等于惩罚那些前几顺位的球队只能拥有一些无足轻重的新秀。
That fact alone will provoke resistance.
光是这件事就会激起大家抵触。
"There are a lot of teams right now who are eyeing 2015 with some real fear，" one GM said. "We don’t have the job security of Adam Silver. We have sold our owners on a plan. Change the competitive landscape， push back the plan and neither we， nor the owners， are happy. A year is a long time in basketball."
一位球队总经理表示：“现在有不少球队对2015年产生了真正的恐惧，我们没有亚当·萧华的工作安全感。我们需要向我们的雇主出售我们的计划，改变竞争格局，一旦推迟计划，我和我的老板都不开心。在篮球界，一年是很长的一段时间。”
It sure is. Just ask Jahlil Okafor， Cliff Alexander， Myles Turner， Karl Towns Jr.， Emmanuel Mudiay and a host of other high school seniors whose dreams of one-and-done might be on the verge of disappearing.
一年肯定是很长的，只要问问贾利尔·奥卡福，克里夫·亚历山大，迈尔斯·特纳，小卡尔·汤斯，伊曼纽尔·穆迪艾①和许多其他大一参加选秀的梦想可能因此而破灭的高中就一定会得到肯定的答案。
在此次选秀中令所有球队都梦寐以求的新秀包括安德鲁·威金斯，贾巴里·帕克，乔尔·恩比德，朱利叶斯·兰德尔，阿隆·戈登，诺阿·冯莱以及泰勒·恩尼斯，都是大一新生。
However， if new NBA commissioner Adam Silver gets his way， they might be the last freshman class to be able to declare for the draft.
无论如何，如果NBA新任总裁亚当·萧华实现了他的想法，这些新秀可能将成为最后一届以大一新生的身份参加选秀的球员。
Longtime NBA commissioner David Stern had tried to raise the NBA age restriction for underclassmen entering the NBA draft ever since his last grand bargain with the National Basketball Players Association （NBPA） in 2005. Silver seems determined to realize Stern’s longtime dream sooner rather than later.
2005年，当和美国篮球运动员协会（NBPA）进行了最后一次谈判后，NBA前任总裁大卫·斯特恩一直试图提高NBA选秀年龄，来限制大学一，二年级的球员参加选秀。萧华似乎已经迫不及待的下定决心来实现斯特恩长久以来的梦想了。
"It has been our sense for a long time that our draft would be more competitive if our teams had an opportunity to see these players play an additional year， whether it be in college or professionally in the Development League or overseas，" Silver told USA Today several weeks ago. "We believe the additional year of maturity would be meaningful."
几周前，萧华在《今日美国》的采访中说：“我们一直都认为如果球队有机会多看球员一年的比赛，无论是在大学、发展联盟或者海外赛场，这都会使球队选秀竞争更加激烈。我们相信，这多一年的成熟会很有意义”
Silver reiterated his point at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on March 1. Asked by author Malcolm Gladwell if he could unilaterally change one aspect of the NBA， Silver said he would raise the age restriction in the NBA.
在3月1号麻省理工学院斯隆体育分析会议上，作家马科尔姆·格莱德威尔向萧华提问如果他能单方改变NBA一个方面的话他会改变什么，萧华重申他会提高NBA的年龄限制。
Currently， players are required to wait one year from the date of their high school graduation before becoming eligible for the draft. For most players， that means they’re draft-eligible after their freshman year of college. Silver would like players to wait two years before declaring for the draft， essentially making them eligible after their sophomore season.
现在，球员们需要在高中毕业后等待一年的时间才有资格参加NBA选秀。这对于大多数球员意味着他们需要等到大一结束后才有资格参与其中。而萧华却希望他们等上两年再来选秀，这本质上是需要球员们读完大二再来参加选秀。
Before the new rule could go into effect， the NBA would have to negotiate with the NBPA. The current NBA age restriction is part of the collective bargaining agreement. It cannot be changed without consent from both the NBA and the NBPA， and there’s the rub. 在新规则生效之前，NBA不得不与NBPA（美国篮球运动员协会）协商谈判。目前的NBA年龄限制是劳资协议条款的一部分，而没有NBA和NBPA的一致同意，劳资协议条款不能改变。而这两组织之间存在摩擦。
The current age restriction was a hardfought concession for the NBPA during the 2005 CBA. Adding an additional year has been a difficult sell to the NBPA in the past.
目前的年龄限制是NBPA（美国篮球运动员协会）在2005年的成本效益分析中做出的一个艰难让步。以往，增加一年的选秀年龄限制已经够NBPA喝一壶了。
But if Silver can get it done （the NBPA will look for some sort of concession from the NBA for it to happen） the 2015 NBA draft could look very different from drafts of the past decade.
但是如果萧华能够实现这个设想（NBPA会努力让NBA同样做出一些让步从而使这个设想实现），那么2015年的NBA选秀大会将会与过去十年的选秀大不一样。
Freshmen have become a staple at the top of the draft since the current age restriction rule was implemented nearly a decade ago.
由于目前年龄限制已经实施了近10年，大一新生已成为了选秀中的中坚力量。
In 2006 -- the first year high school seniors were barred from the draft -- only one college freshman， LSU’s Tyrus Thomas， was taken in the lottery. That number jumped to seven in 2007. In fact， three of the first four picks in the draft were college freshmen， led by Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In 2008， four of the first five players in the draft were freshmen and a total of eight were taken in the lottery.
2006年——高三毕业生被禁止参加选秀的第一年——只有一名大一新生，泰鲁斯·托马斯，进入了选秀。到了2007年这个数字升到了7个。事实上，前4顺位的新秀中有3名大一新生，以格雷格·奥登和凯文·杜兰特为代表。到了2008年，前5顺位中有4名大一新生，在整个选秀中共有8名。
In total， 36 freshmen have been taken in the lottery since 2006. That number will likely jump into the mid-40s this season. Silver’s plan， if he’s successful， will drastically alter the landscape of both the draft and college basketball.
总的来说，2006年来已有36名大一学生通过选秀进入NBA。这个赛季后，这个数字可能会升至40多。如果萧华成功实施了他的计划，将会极大程度的改变选秀和大学篮球。
Silver’s rationale comes directly out of Stern’s textbook. The longer prospects stay in college （or play in the NBDL）， Silver reasons， the more maturity they get as individuals and players and the more marketable they are to fans. It’s about improving the product on the court and selling that product to fans.
萧华的论据直接来自斯特恩的教科书，萧华的理由是，在大学里待的时间越长（或者在NBDL发展联盟打球时间越长），球员会越发成熟，有更大的成长和更多的球迷。其实这就是先在球场上提高产品质量，再销售给球迷。
But is it a good idea？
但是这是个好主意吗？
I spoke to a number of NBA GMs， coaches and player agents to get their take. All asked that their comments be off the record. As you might expect， there was a variety of responses. It appears Silver will have strong support among many NBA front offices. He’ll have even stronger support among coaches. However， as you can imagine， player agents are against it unless the NBA is willing to offer significant concessions in return. 我和许多NBA经理，教练及经纪人交流，试图听取他们的意见。他们都说不能透露自己的言论。正如你所预料的一样，答案多种多样。萧华的观点似乎会得到NBA高层和教练的大力支持。但是，同样可以想象到球员经纪人却反对提高年龄限制，除非NBA愿意做出有效的让步作为补偿。
Here’s a look at the good， bad and ugly reactions among the people I spoke with.
来看看我采访的人当中，那些支持之声，反对之音，以及难看之处。
Silver isn’t alone in thinking that the NBA can improve its product by increasing the league’s age restriction from 19 to 20. Everyone from NBA scouts to coaches sees a number of benefits.
不单单是萧华认为通过将年龄限制19岁提高到20岁能提高联盟质量，从NBA球探到教练的每一个人都看到了很多好处。
"So many of the kids that are coming to the NBA just aren’t ready，" said one NBA head coach. "They don’t know how to play. Their bodies aren’t mature. They aren’t men yet. They are still kids. This is a man’s league. It takes commitment. It takes toughness. It takes cognitive ability that these young men don’t have yet. How can that not improve the game to have them stay another year？ If I had it my way， they’d stay three seasons and be eligible to declare after their junior year."
一位NBA主帅说：“很多来NBA打球的孩子都没有准备好，他们不知道如何在NBA打球，他们的身体还不够成熟，他们还不是成熟的男人，只是一群孩子。但NBA是一个男子汉的联盟。它需要球员全身心献身其中，需要强健的身体，需要这些年轻孩子都不具备的认知力。为什么说多留大学一年不能让他们提高呢？若按我的方式，我会让他们等三年，等到大三结束后才有资格决定是否参加选秀。
That sentiment was backed up by a number of other coaches who cited everything from emotional to physical maturity. College， they argue， teaches you more than basketball. It teaches responsibility. It teaches problem solving. It teaches hard work and how to handle the media. The longer players stay， the more committed they become to improving themselves instead of looking at college as a temporary rest stop on the way to the NBA.
这个观点被许多教练支持，他们认为大学生涯使球员生理和心理更成熟。他们的主张是，大学教给你的不仅仅是篮球，还教会你如何解决问题，如何刻苦工作，如何应对媒体。在大学停留的时间越长，大学越是会完善球员，而不再仅仅是通往NBA的临时休息站。
"I think many college coaches can’t really coach the young kids the way they want to because of the one-and-done rule，" another coach told ESPN. "They have to cater to the mindset that is focused on the NBA. Forcing them to stay another year or two gives coaches more time to teach， to discipline and to really coach these young people. So many young players come into the league without the ability to take coaching. I think the one-anddone rule has helped foster that culture."
另外一名教练告诉ESPN：“我认为由于孩子们在大学打一年就走，许多大学教练无法教给孩子他们想传达的东西，而不得不迎合孩子们专注于NBA的心态。（这个条款）可以强迫孩子们再待一两年，使大学教练有时间去教他们，管理他们的纪律，真正教他们打球。所以现在许多年轻球员进入联盟后没能力去理解教练的指导。我认为大一新生在大学打一年球就走的情况促进形成了这种文化。”
Sure， that’s a bit of a sweeping generalization. The one-and-done culture didn’t tarnish Kevin Durant， Derrick Rose or Anthony Davis. All of them thrived in the NBA from day one. None of them appears to be uncoachable. But there are enough examples of young players struggling to make the transition that these coaches might have a point. 当然，这有点以偏概全。这种在大学里打一年就走的文化并没有影响凯文·杜兰特，德里克·罗斯和安东尼·戴维斯。他们从第一天进入NBA开始就开始蓬勃发展，没有一个不能被教练教导。但是，有足够的例子来说明年轻球员过渡到NBA的挣扎，教练们对此的观点似乎是正确的。
For many GMs， the concerns are more practical.
对于 NBA经理们来说，对年龄限制的顾虑更加实际。
"The more data you have， the better decisions you can make about players，" one GM said. "That extra year of scouting helps everyone. It helps us see what adjustments a player makes from Year 1 to Year 2. It gives us another 30-plus games to break down. It also helps our analytics people tremendously as all of their formulas are more accurate with the more data they receive. It will make our life easier."
一位总经理说：“你得到的数据越多，你做出的决策就越英明。对球员额外一年的观察对大家来说是很有好处的，它帮助我们发现一名球员从大一到大二有什么进步，它给予了我们额外的30多场比赛来考察。当分析员拥有更多的数据时，得出的公式也就更准确。这使得我们的职业生涯变得更轻松。”
Perhaps. More data certainly shouldn’t hurt （though one can overscout players， too）. But many of the busts at the top of the draft have not been freshmen， but sophomores and juniors who might have been overvalued because of familiarity. Hasheem Thabeet（junior）， Adam Morrison （junior）， Evan Turner（junior）， Derrick Williams （sophomore） and Wesley Johnson （junior） were all top-five picks who didn’t pan out. Teams had plenty of data on them.
也许，更多的数据不会有坏处（也可能会过度的考察球员），但前几位的新秀不是大一新生，而是大二和大三学生时，由于过于熟悉，他们可能会被高估。哈希姆·塔比特（大三），亚当·莫里森（大三），埃文·特纳（大三），德里克·威廉姆斯（大二）和韦斯利·约翰逊（大三）都是前五位的球员，但没在NBA里一帆风顺，虽然球队有关于他们足够多的数据。
Finally， several GMs saw an opportunity to create a real minor league out of the NBDL if the change occurs.
如果成真，一些球队经理看到了一个创造真正的NBDL以外的小联盟的机会。
"I think more players will take a harder look at skipping college and going straight to the D-League，" one GM said. "Especially if we can pay them a little more. Waiting for two years under the restrictions of the NCAA will be a hardship for some. I think if we can get every team owning a D-League franchise， we can really start to do our part to prepare players to play in the NBA. It would be good for the league."
一位经理说：“我认为会有更多球员考虑跳过大学直接进入发展联盟打球，尤其是当他们还能在发展联盟赚点小钱的情况下。在NCAA的年龄限制下等待两年对某些人来说是比较困难的。如果每支球队都在发展联盟中有一支附属球队，我们可以真正的为球员进入NBA做准备。这对于联赛来说是有益的。”
However， not everyone is on board. A number of GMs feel like the NBA is being paternalistic. Good front offices， they argue， know how to find and develop talent. It’s not the players’ fault -- it’s the fault of inept GMs.
无论如何，并不是所有的人都这么认为。有一部分的经理认为NBA变得过于家长式作风。他们认为，好的球队管理层能知道如何挖掘和发展天赋。这不是球员的错——这是不称职的总经理的错误。
"I think it’s an overreaction，" one GM said."Teams that know what they are doing， have the right process and support structure in place， do very well. Adam should spend less time lecturing the NBPA and more time lecturing owners who are spending up to $100 million a year but don’t know how to develop or find good players. Most of the teams that struggle with this just don’t have the right systems in place. What we really need is a developmental league for executives and scouts." 一位球队经理表示：“我认为这反应有点过激了。那些知道自己在做什么的球队有正确的程序和完整的支撑结构，做的非常出色。亚当应该少花点时间去教导NBPA，而应去指导那些每年花1亿美金却不知怎么挖掘或发展优秀球员的NBA球队老板。大多数为此而挣扎的球队只是因为没有正确的系统。我们真正需要的是更为先进的球队管理层和球探。”
Others argue top players don’t necessarily need another year in college， but rather better competition against bigger， faster and more experienced professionals.
其他经理认为顶尖球员不需在大学度过额外的一年，取而代之的应该去好的联赛中，和更强，更快，更有经验的职业球员对抗。
"Another year at school was going to help Kevin Durant？" one NBA scout mused."Derrick Rose needed to beat up on college kids for another year？ At some point your game stagnates unless it is challenged. I can’t see Jabari Parker being better in 2016 if he stayed in college instead of coming directly to the NBA. It’s the better competition that raises his game. And can we quit pretending that the college game and the NBA are the same game？ They’re not. The quicker they learn the NBA game， the better."
“凯文·杜兰特多留校一年会有进步？” 一个球探谨慎地说道，“德里克·罗斯需要再一次击败大学孩子？有些时候如果联赛没有挑战，球员就会停滞不前。我不觉得贾巴里·帕克如果不参加选秀进入NBA而选择留校到2016年还会有什么进步。这是一个能帮助他更进一步的比赛。我们能别再继续认为大学比赛和NBA是同等级别的了吗？它们不是（同等级别的）。这些球员越早进入NBA越好。”
Agents aren’t on board either， but for different reasons.
经纪人也同样觉得提高年龄限制这个想法不好，但有不同的理由。
"If a player is ready for the NBA， they’re ready，" one player agent said. "Why have an arbitrary age limit that treats everyone like they’re equal？ LeBron James was ready. Tyrus Thomas wasn’t. It’s a PR gimmick and everyone knows it. It has nothing to do with what Adam is saying. It has everything to do with using the NCAA to help build a player’s marketability.
一名经纪人说：“如果球员已经准备好打NBA了，既然他们做好了准备，那为什么要对所有人都有相同的年龄限制呢？勒布朗·詹姆斯已经准备好了。泰鲁斯·托马斯没有。这是一个公关噱头，每个人都知道的。这跟亚当说的话没有一点关系。这是一个关于是否用NCAA来增加球员市场竞争力的问题。”
"If you really believe in your teams， let the players and GMs make that call and live with the consequences. Why should a player who wants to come and is ready to come be barred because someone else -- either a team or a player -- made a stupid decision in the past？ Would LeBron really have been better off waiting two years？ Would Durant or Rose somehow have a better career？ NBA careers are short. For the players that are ready， I think they should come when they’re ready. If they’re a junior in high school and they can play， let them come and try."
“如果你真的相信你的球队，那就让球员和总经理通个电话并承担后果。为什么一个球员愿意来，并准备好了，却由于过去可能是球队或其他球员做了愚蠢的决定而被禁止呢？勒布朗真的该再等两年吗？杜兰特或罗斯会因此莫名其妙拥有更好的职业生涯吗？NBA职业生涯很短暂，当球员做好了准备，我认为他们该来。如果他们是高中三年级，但是他们却能打NBA，那就让他们来试试吧。”
The truth is， if new age restrictions do go into effect in 2015， the pain will really be felt in the next draft. 事实上，如果2015年年龄限制提案生效，那么下一届选秀将会感受到与之而来的苦果。
With all the top freshmen bolting for the NBA this year， and with no freshmen to come in and replace them in the draft pool， the 2015 draft would be filled with players who essentially couldn’t cut it in the 2014 draft.For teams that are in the rebuilding process at the moment， it would mean a historically weak draft that would be potentially devastating to the teams with high lottery picks -- essentially punishing teams near the top of the draft with marginal choices.
2014年，当所有的顶尖大一学生进入了NBA选秀，2015年没有新的大一学生参加选秀，也就是说2015年的新秀基本都是2014年落选的球员。
对于目前处于重组中的球队来说，2015年意味着历史上最弱的一次选秀阵容，也将潜在的破坏拥有高顺位选秀权的球队——本质上等于惩罚那些前几顺位的球队只能拥有一些无足轻重的新秀。
That fact alone will provoke resistance.
光是这件事就会激起大家抵触。
"There are a lot of teams right now who are eyeing 2015 with some real fear，" one GM said. "We don’t have the job security of Adam Silver. We have sold our owners on a plan. Change the competitive landscape， push back the plan and neither we， nor the owners， are happy. A year is a long time in basketball."
一位球队总经理表示：“现在有不少球队对2015年产生了真正的恐惧，我们没有亚当·萧华的工作安全感。我们需要向我们的雇主出售我们的计划，改变竞争格局，一旦推迟计划，我和我的老板都不开心。在篮球界，一年是很长的一段时间。”
It sure is. Just ask Jahlil Okafor， Cliff Alexander， Myles Turner， Karl Towns Jr.， Emmanuel Mudiay and a host of other high school seniors whose dreams of one-and-done might be on the verge of disappearing.
一年肯定是很长的，只要问问贾利尔·奥卡福，克里夫·亚历山大，迈尔斯·特纳，小卡尔·汤斯，伊曼纽尔·穆迪艾①和许多其他大一参加选秀的梦想可能因此而破灭的高中就一定会得到肯定的答案。