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利用川渝地区1960—2006年逐月降水量资料和美国NOAA Research/ESRL逐月再分析海表温度(SST)资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、点相关、合成分析和奇异值分解(SVD)等方法,详细探讨了川渝地区夏季降水量与赤道印度洋海温的关系。结果表明:川渝夏季降水量EOF分解得出的第一模态占总方差的27.8%,降水量的空间分布为全区一致型;川渝地区夏季降水量与赤道印度洋海温区域(10°N～16°S,57～77°E)(下称关键区)存在显著相关。合成分析指出关键区海温异常偏暖(冷),对应川渝地区夏季降水量比常年同期偏多(少)。通过SVD分解发现,川渝地区夏季降水量与关键区海温呈显著相关,具体表现为印度洋关键区海温与川西高原和盆地东部夏季降水量呈同位相变化,与盆地中部降水量呈反位相变化。
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2006 in Sichuan Province and Chongqing and the monthly NOSTA data from NOAA Research / ESRL in the US, empirical orthogonal function decomposition (EOF), point correlation, composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD) and other methods, discussed in detail the relationship between the summer rainfall in Sichuan and Chongqing and the SST in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The results show that the first modal of EOF decomposition of summer rainfall in Sichuan and Chongqing accounts for 27.8% of the total variance, and the spatial distribution of precipitation is consistent with that of the whole region. The summer precipitation in Sichuan and Chongqing is similar to that of the equatorial Indian Ocean (10 ° N ~ 16 ° S, 57 ~ 77 ° E) (hereinafter referred to as the key zone) there is a significant correlation. The synthetic analysis indicates that the anomalous warming (cold) of the sea surface temperature in the key area is corresponding to the more (less) summer precipitation in the Sichuan-Chongqing area than in the same period of previous years. Through SVD analysis, it is found that the summer precipitation in Sichuan-Chongqing area is significantly correlated with the sea surface temperature in the key area, which shows that the sea surface temperature in the key Indian Ocean region changes in phase with the summer precipitation in the western Sichuan basin and the eastern part of the basin, Variety.