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和天气预报相比，地震预测，特别是地震的短临预测更为困难。概率方法真实地反映了地震发生的随机性，真实地反映了人类对于地震认识的局限性，加快短期预测的概率方法研究与应用是十分必要的。概率预测是经验预测、统计预测和物理预测的综合，各类地震预测方法特别是物理预测方法的发展还很不充分，目前仍处于探索阶段。从目前我国地震预测的现状来看，应大力发展统计预测方法。地震目录可为我们提供对背景地震发生率的估计，而前兆的出现使我们可以得到地震发生率大大高于背景发生率的时段，其增益越强，时段越短，越接近于理想预测。前兆和地震之间的关系的统计检验对于概率预测起着十分重要的作用。该文提出，应按实用化的要求逐步规范各种地震预测方法。这对地震预测研究的健康发展是至关重要的。
Compared with the weather forecast, earthquake prediction, especially the short-term earthquake prediction is more difficult. The probability method truly reflects the randomness of earthquakes and truly reflects the limitations of human understanding of earthquakes. It is necessary to study and apply the probabilistic method to short-term prediction. Probabilistic prediction is a combination of empirical prediction, statistical prediction and physical prediction. The development of various types of earthquake prediction methods, especially physical prediction methods, is still inadequate and is still at an exploratory stage. Judging from the current situation of earthquake prediction in our country, we should make great efforts to develop statistical prediction methods. The earthquake catalog provides us with an estimate of the background earthquake occurrence, and the advent of precursors allows us to obtain a period with a much higher incidence of earthquakes than the background incidence, the stronger the gain, the shorter the period, the closer we get to the ideal forecast. The statistical test of the relationship between precursors and earthquakes plays a very important role in probability prediction. This paper proposes that various earthquake prediction methods should be gradually regulated according to practical requirements. This is of vital importance to the healthy development of earthquake prediction research.