为了使一次预测成功，必须首先明确地陈述所预报地震的时间间隔和地点范围的发生概率，还有震级下限。这里要附加两个重要的要求：第一个实用性的要求是要求震级的下限适合于社会的需要，换句话说就是我们只对那些具有破坏性的强震感兴趣。对于发展中国家的社会需要而言，... In order for a prediction to succeed, one must first clearly state the probability of occurrence of the predicted time and location range of the earthquake, as well as the lower magnitude limit. Two important requirements are added here: The first practical requirement is that the lower bound of the magnitude is appropriate for the needs of society. In other words, we are only interested in those destructive strong earthquakes. For the social needs of developing countries, ...