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根据新疆城市化的特点,利用系统动力学理论,构建了水资源对城市化约束的系统仿真模型,设定高、中、低三种速度的城市化方案。由计算机仿真和分析得出,新疆不宜采取低速度或高速度的城市化方案,适合采取中速度的城市化方案。最后讨论了模型存在的不足和需要进一步完善的地方,并提出新疆各地区的水资源量差异较大,今后要进一步研究各地区水资源对城市化进程的约束。
According to the characteristics of urbanization in Xinjiang, this paper constructs a systematic simulation model of urbanization constraint of water resources by using system dynamics theory and sets up the urbanization plan of high, medium and low speed. From the computer simulation and analysis, it is concluded that Xinjiang should not adopt the low-speed or high-speed urbanization scheme and is suitable for medium-speed urbanization scheme. Finally, the paper discusses the shortcomings of the model and the areas that need further improvement. It also points out that there are great differences in the amount of water resources in different regions of Xinjiang. In the future, it is necessary to further study the constraints of water resources on urbanization in different regions.