经济预测在各级政府制定经济发展规划、未来发展目标及相关经济决策中起着非常重要的作用。然而,经济系统是一个复杂的系统。由于社会经济现象往往受许多因素的影响,并且这些因素又保持着错综复杂的联系,运用结构式的因果模型进行分析和预测往往比较困难。在这种情况下,“让数据自己说话”的建模思想为经济预测开辟了新的途径。文章用一阶自回归模型预测宣汉县GDP增速,并结合国家、四川省经济增速变化进行修订,预测精度有了较大提高。因此,在经济预测实践中,自回归模型和线性回归结合运用将是新的探索。 Economic forecasts play an important role in formulating economic development plans, future development goals and relevant economic decisions at all levels of government. However, the economic system is a complex system. Because socio-economic phenomena are often influenced by many factors, and these factors are still intricately linked, it is often difficult to analyze and predict using structural causal models. In this case, the modeling idea of ​​“let the data speak by itself” opens up new avenues for economic forecasting. In this paper, the first-order autoregressive model is used to predict the GDP growth in Xuanhan County, and the revision of economic growth in the country and Sichuan Province is carried out. The prediction accuracy has been greatly improved. Therefore, in the economic forecasting practice, the combination of autoregressive model and linear regression will be a new exploration.