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基于内蒙农业气象试验站春小麦多年田间试验数据和逐日气象数据,分析了农业生产系统模型APSIM在内蒙春小麦产区的适应性,运用灰色关联法提取影响春小麦产量的优势因子,确定影响春小麦潜在产量的最优气象因子,探讨潜在产量对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1961—2014年内蒙春小麦潜在产量总体呈降低的变化趋势,平均值为3560.84 kg·hm~(-2),其中20世纪80年代潜在产量最高为3681.33 kg·hm~(-2),21世纪初最低,为3432.82 kg·hm~(-2);区域间差异明显,近54年内蒙春小麦潜在产量分布由中间向东部和西部呈条带状逐渐增加,且3个区域中西部麦区潜在产量最大;影响内蒙古不同区域春小麦潜在产量的最优气象因子不同,其中,影响内蒙古东部麦区春小麦潜在产量的气象因子主要为生育期内平均最低温度和平均土壤表层温度,其次为平均温度、总辐射量和平均最高温度;影响西部春小麦潜在产量形成的因子为平均土壤表层温度、平均温度和平均最高温度,平均最低温度、总潜在蒸散量和空气湿度次之,而由总降水量和风速引起的内蒙古春小麦产量的变化不明显;中部麦区春小麦潜在产量形成对太阳总辐射和土壤表层温度最敏感,其次是平均最低温度、平均温度和平均最高温度,对平均风速和总降水量最不敏感。以上结果为今后在气候变化背景下开展解析内蒙小麦产区春小麦生长发育进程及产量形成的限制因素等研究提供了技术支撑。
Based on years of spring wheat experiment data and daily meteorological data in Inner Mongolia Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station, the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in Inner Mongolia spring wheat region was analyzed. Gray relational method was used to extract the dominant factors that affect the yield of spring wheat to determine the potential yield of spring wheat The best meteorological factor, to explore the potential output of climate change response. The results showed that the potential yield of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2014, with an average of 3560.84 kg · hm -2. The maximum potential yield in the 1980s was 3681.33 kg · hm -2, The lowest in the early 21st century was 3432.82 kg · hm -2. The differences between the two regions were obvious. Within 54 years, the potential yield distribution of Inner Mongolia spring wheat gradually increased from the middle to the east and the west, and the mid- And the potential yield was the highest. The meteorological factors influencing the potential yield of spring wheat in different regions of Inner Mongolia were different. Among them, the meteorological factors that affected the potential yield of spring wheat in eastern Inner Mongolia were the mean minimum temperature and average soil surface temperature during the growth period, followed by the average temperature, Total radiation and average maximum temperature. The factors affecting the potential yield formation of the western spring wheat were the average soil surface temperature, the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, the average minimum temperature, the total potential evapotranspiration and the air humidity. The total precipitation and the wind speed The change of spring wheat yield in Inner Mongolia was not obvious; the potential yield formation of spring wheat in central wheat was the most sensitive to solar radiation and soil surface temperature, followed by Is the average minimum temperature, the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, and is least sensitive to the average wind speed and the total precipitation. The above results provide technical support for future research on the process of analyzing the growth and development of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia wheat-producing areas and the limiting factors of yield formation under the background of climate change.