论文部分内容阅读
While much attention is paid to China’s largest cities， the country’s smaller urban centers could become the larger driver of growth and consumer spending in the coming decade.
The population of Shanghai， at around 24 million， nearly rivals that of Texas （27 million） and China’s other large cities aren’t far behind. Consumers in these urban behemoths1—along with their rising per capita net worth—have naturally captured the focus of domestic and international brands.
As China develops into a higher income society， private consumption could grow from its current $4.4 trillion to $9.7 trillion by 2030， according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Research. Many investors believe that top-tier cities， which are either provincial capitals or so-called special economic zones， will continue to dominate China’s consumer economy.
However， the lower-tier cities， which include prefecture- and county-level urban enclaves and already comprise 59% of the country’s GDP and 73% of its population， may be bigger engines for spending to fuel economic growth， according to Robin Xing， Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist. “While investors perceive larger cities as offering the most important consumer base， we believe that lower-tier cities will be bigger， wealthier and more eager to spend， and could contribute two-thirds of incremental growth in national private consumption toward 2030，” Xing says.
For investors who are confident in China’s continuing growth， but uncertain about where to find it， these lower-tier cities， such as Xuzhou and Nantong in the east， Quanzhou in the south， or Baoding in the north， may offer significant prospects， as they start to flex their considerable consumer might2. Indeed， a number of industries are well-positioned to benefit—from consumer goods and domestic autos to the travel， entertainment and gaming industries.
Population shift
Urban population growth has slowed or even turned negative in China’s large cities. Case in point， Shanghai’s urban population size has contracted since 2015， and policymakers in Beijing are making efforts to relocate people out of the city via plans to set up the “Xiongan New District，” to ease traffic congestion and overcrowding issues.
In contrast， urban population in lower-tier cities—already nine-times and triple that of tier-1 and tier-2 cities， respectively—has increased at a relatively higher pace over the past five years， due to a more flexible official residency policy and higher fertility rates. “Based on a United Nations estimate， we expect 166 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the next 14 years， with 75% of them headed toward lower-tier cities，” Xing says. Growing consumer power
Economists like to keep tabs on what they call “income convergence，” or the closing of the income gap between rich and poor. Such gaps tend to narrow for a number of reasons， including higher marginal productivity on cheaper labor and land costs in lower-tier cities， better economic integration with government-led redistribution of infrastructure and public resources from regional hubs to small neighbor cities， and broader penetration of technology， including smartphones and the internet， according to the Morgan Stanley research.
All these factors are currently at play in China. For example， the lower-tier cities have benefited from government policies that promote the development of public resources， such as hospitals， schools and transportation infrastructure. Case in point： Since March 2019， the Chinese government has announced plans to set up， not only the Xiongan New District near Beijing， but also “city clusters” in the Yangtze River Delta， and a “Bay area” blueprint for Guangdong.
“These various initiatives are likely to complement market forces and speed the catch-up growth for lower-tier cities，” Xing says.
Indeed， the leveling playing field has begun to reduce the income gap between top-tier and lower-tier city populations. A decade ago， per capita disposable income for families in China’s smaller cities was 55% lower than those in top-tier cities; the difference has decreased to 45% today， and will likely come down further to 36% by 2030， Xing notes.
For now， however， smaller cities’ seeming weaknesses have become their strengths. Whereas real estate rents and prices in top-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have been notoriously expensive， the relative affordability of property markets in lower-tier cities means lower living costs， which is attractive for both businesses and workers. Meanwhile， the more flexible official residency policy could bring better social-security coverage， reducing the need for precautionary passive savings3.
When combined， these advantages could encourage household consumption in smaller cities. The report forecasts that total consumption will increase by 8.7% annually toward 2030 in the lower-tier cities， compared to 6.6% in top-tier cities.
Who will benefit as small-city families grow bigger budgets？ Several industries and brands may be able to catch this consumer spending wave.
Internet
“It is worth noting that mobile payment penetration rose from 50.3% to 65.5% over 2017， with most new users coming from rural areas，” Credit Suisse analysts said in a report， adding people are spending close to five hours a day on mobile internet. One of the most prominent examples of a company tapping into rural China’s growth is Pinduoduo. The firm is best known for its group buying offers， that allow products to be sold cheaply in bulk， directly from the manufacturer or farmer.
Another internet company that has tapped growth in China’s less-developed areas is Kuaishou， a Tencent-backed app for streaming short videos.
Kuaishou claims that one out of every five people in China’s 832 poverty-stricken counties and special regions is an active user of its app. Some videos showcase local creativity—one video of live chickens arranged in the shape of the Chinese character for “blessing” garnered more than 620，000 likes.
The app has also become an e-commerce platform， with about 1.15 million users from very poor areas notching sales of 19.3 billion yuan in 2018， according to the company.
More shoes， more trips
Consumer products companies， especially sportswear and jewelry， may be the first to capture these newly minted4 middle-class customers， who will have more money for athletic shoes and accessories. Additional discretionary income also bodes well for fast food and restaurant chains， especially because many have yet to expand into lower-tier cities.
Families may be more apt to spend money on outside entertainment， including going to the movies and traveling abroad. Travel-related brands， from airlines to hotels， should all take note. Lastly， demand for cars also will likely rise in lower-tier cities， where ownership lags behind that of the larger urban areas， especially as incomes grow.
China’s transitioning economy will continue to ripple5 across domestic and global industries. Investors looking to tap into the next wave of growth would do well to look past6 the obvious， at the potential of the country’s smaller cities.■
在中國，尽管一线大城市吸引了大部分目光，但中小城市可能成为未来十年推动增长、拉动消费的主要动力。
上海人口约2400万，接近得克萨斯州的2700万人口数，中国其他几大城市的人口数量也不遑多让。这些城市拥有庞大的消费群体，且人均资产净值持续上升，自然吸引了国内外众多品牌的关注。
摩根士丹利研究所最近的一份报告指出，随着中国向高收入社会转型，到2030年，其个人消费可能从目前的4.4万亿美元增长至9.7万亿美元。许多投资者认为一线城市，不论是省会城市还是经济特区城市，将持续主导中国的消费经济。
不过，摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家邢自强表示，中国的中小城市，包括地级市和县级市城市群，已经占到全国GDP的59%和人口的73%，可能会成为刺激消费进而推动经济增长的更强劲引擎。他指出，“虽然不少投资者认为大城市是最重要的消费市场，但我们认为三四线城市将变得更大，居民会变得更富且消费意愿会更强烈，到2030年将贡献中国个人消费递进增量的三分之二”。
有些投资者对中国持续发展充满信心，却又不能确定合适的投资方向，可以留意华东的徐州和南通、华南的泉州或华北的保定，这些城市已初步展现强劲的消费势头，有着巨大的前景。事实上，消费品、家用汽车、旅游、娱乐和游戏等众多行业都有机会从中获利。
人口迁移
目前，中国大城市的人口增长已经放缓，甚至出现了负增长。以上海为例，2015年以来该市常住人口数便开始收缩。中国政府也在积极筹建“雄安新区”，计划将部分人口迁离北京，以缓解首都交通拥堵及其他因人口过密导致的问题。 由于中小城市落户政策更加灵活，且生育率相对较高，其人口规模在过去五年中增长相对较快，已分别达到一线和二线城市人口的9倍和3倍。邢自强谈道：“据联合国预计，未来14年内将有1.66亿农村人口迁移到城市，而其中75%将迁移到中小城市。”
消费力持续增长
经济学家一般都密切关注“收入趋同”（或贫富差距缩小）。摩根士丹利研究报告称，贫富差距缩小的原因很多，包括：中小城市劳动力与土地成本相对低廉，从而促进边际生产率提高;政府主导的基础设施和公共资源从中心城市到周边小城市再分配，使经济更好地统筹发展;智能手机与互联网等技术的广泛深入运用。
目前，上述因素均在中国发挥着作用。例如，政府出台多项政策推动医院、学校、交通基础设施等公共资源的开发，部分中小城市已从中受益。例如：2019年3月以来，中國政府不仅宣布要在北京附近建设雄安新区，而且规划了长三角“城市群”以及广东“大湾区”的宏伟蓝图。
邢自强评论道：“这一系列举措将弥补市场调控的不足，同时提升中小城市迎头赶上的速度。”
诚然，公平竞争使得大城市居民与中小城市居民的收入差距开始缩小。邢自强指出，十年前，中国中小城市家庭人均可支配收入比一线城市低55%，如今已缩至45%，到2030年可能会进一步减少至36%。
目前来说，小城市表面上的某些劣势已成为它们的优势。上海、北京等一线城市的房产租售价畸高，而中小城市的房地产价格相对来说还在可承受范围之内，因而生活成本相对较低，对企业和劳动者都颇具吸引力。同时，落户政策更灵活，社保覆盖面更广，家庭预防性储蓄需求随之降低。
以上优势结合起来，将有效促进中小城市的家庭消费。该报告预测，到2030年，中小城市的总消费量增长率为8.7%，一线城市则仅为6.6%。
随着中小城市家庭支出预算的增加，谁将从中受益？以下几个行业和品牌也许能够赶上这一消费浪潮。
互联网
瑞士瑞信银行分析师在一份报告中宣称：“值得注意的是，2017年一年之内，移动支付普及率从50.3%提升至65.5%，且大部分新增用户来自农村地区。”并指出，中国人均单日使用移动互联网时长接近5个小时。
拼多多是中国企业发掘中国农村地区增长潜力的一大突出案例。该公司以其团购优惠闻名，其产品直接来自制造商或农民并以低价批量销售。
快手则是另一家利用了中国欠发达地区的经济增长发展壮大自己的互联网公司，其主打产品是一款由腾讯资本支持的短视频应用程序。
快手官方数据显示，中国832个贫困县和特殊地区中，每5人中就有1位快手活跃用户。有些视频展示了当地人的创造力——一条让鸡群摆出“福”字形状的视频，收到了62万条“赞”。
快手已成长为电子商务平台，据该公司统计，仅在2018年，就约有115万特困地区用户在快手上卖货，销售总额高达193亿元。
旅游鞋和旅游业
消费品公司，尤其是运动服装和珠宝类品牌，可能成为首批抓住这些新兴中产阶级客户的公司。该阶层将有更多的钱购买运动鞋和饰品。额外的可自由支配收入对于快餐和连锁餐饮行业来说也是个好消息，特别是不少快餐连锁店还未下沉到中小城市。
中国家庭可能更倾向于把钱花在户外娱乐项目上，包括看电影和出国旅行。与旅游相关的品牌企业，包括航空公司和酒店等，都应对此关注。最后，尤其是随着收入的增长，汽车保有量落后于大城市的中小城市，其汽车需求量也可能会上升。
中国的经济转型将持续影响着国内外各行业。希望投身中国下一波增长浪潮的投资者比较明智的做法是将目光略过大城市，投向具有潜力的中小城市。 □
（译者单位：中南大学）
The population of Shanghai， at around 24 million， nearly rivals that of Texas （27 million） and China’s other large cities aren’t far behind. Consumers in these urban behemoths1—along with their rising per capita net worth—have naturally captured the focus of domestic and international brands.
As China develops into a higher income society， private consumption could grow from its current $4.4 trillion to $9.7 trillion by 2030， according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Research. Many investors believe that top-tier cities， which are either provincial capitals or so-called special economic zones， will continue to dominate China’s consumer economy.
However， the lower-tier cities， which include prefecture- and county-level urban enclaves and already comprise 59% of the country’s GDP and 73% of its population， may be bigger engines for spending to fuel economic growth， according to Robin Xing， Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist. “While investors perceive larger cities as offering the most important consumer base， we believe that lower-tier cities will be bigger， wealthier and more eager to spend， and could contribute two-thirds of incremental growth in national private consumption toward 2030，” Xing says.
For investors who are confident in China’s continuing growth， but uncertain about where to find it， these lower-tier cities， such as Xuzhou and Nantong in the east， Quanzhou in the south， or Baoding in the north， may offer significant prospects， as they start to flex their considerable consumer might2. Indeed， a number of industries are well-positioned to benefit—from consumer goods and domestic autos to the travel， entertainment and gaming industries.
Population shift
Urban population growth has slowed or even turned negative in China’s large cities. Case in point， Shanghai’s urban population size has contracted since 2015， and policymakers in Beijing are making efforts to relocate people out of the city via plans to set up the “Xiongan New District，” to ease traffic congestion and overcrowding issues.
In contrast， urban population in lower-tier cities—already nine-times and triple that of tier-1 and tier-2 cities， respectively—has increased at a relatively higher pace over the past five years， due to a more flexible official residency policy and higher fertility rates. “Based on a United Nations estimate， we expect 166 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the next 14 years， with 75% of them headed toward lower-tier cities，” Xing says. Growing consumer power
Economists like to keep tabs on what they call “income convergence，” or the closing of the income gap between rich and poor. Such gaps tend to narrow for a number of reasons， including higher marginal productivity on cheaper labor and land costs in lower-tier cities， better economic integration with government-led redistribution of infrastructure and public resources from regional hubs to small neighbor cities， and broader penetration of technology， including smartphones and the internet， according to the Morgan Stanley research.
All these factors are currently at play in China. For example， the lower-tier cities have benefited from government policies that promote the development of public resources， such as hospitals， schools and transportation infrastructure. Case in point： Since March 2019， the Chinese government has announced plans to set up， not only the Xiongan New District near Beijing， but also “city clusters” in the Yangtze River Delta， and a “Bay area” blueprint for Guangdong.
“These various initiatives are likely to complement market forces and speed the catch-up growth for lower-tier cities，” Xing says.
Indeed， the leveling playing field has begun to reduce the income gap between top-tier and lower-tier city populations. A decade ago， per capita disposable income for families in China’s smaller cities was 55% lower than those in top-tier cities; the difference has decreased to 45% today， and will likely come down further to 36% by 2030， Xing notes.
For now， however， smaller cities’ seeming weaknesses have become their strengths. Whereas real estate rents and prices in top-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have been notoriously expensive， the relative affordability of property markets in lower-tier cities means lower living costs， which is attractive for both businesses and workers. Meanwhile， the more flexible official residency policy could bring better social-security coverage， reducing the need for precautionary passive savings3.
When combined， these advantages could encourage household consumption in smaller cities. The report forecasts that total consumption will increase by 8.7% annually toward 2030 in the lower-tier cities， compared to 6.6% in top-tier cities.
Who will benefit as small-city families grow bigger budgets？ Several industries and brands may be able to catch this consumer spending wave.
Internet
“It is worth noting that mobile payment penetration rose from 50.3% to 65.5% over 2017， with most new users coming from rural areas，” Credit Suisse analysts said in a report， adding people are spending close to five hours a day on mobile internet. One of the most prominent examples of a company tapping into rural China’s growth is Pinduoduo. The firm is best known for its group buying offers， that allow products to be sold cheaply in bulk， directly from the manufacturer or farmer.
Another internet company that has tapped growth in China’s less-developed areas is Kuaishou， a Tencent-backed app for streaming short videos.
Kuaishou claims that one out of every five people in China’s 832 poverty-stricken counties and special regions is an active user of its app. Some videos showcase local creativity—one video of live chickens arranged in the shape of the Chinese character for “blessing” garnered more than 620，000 likes.
The app has also become an e-commerce platform， with about 1.15 million users from very poor areas notching sales of 19.3 billion yuan in 2018， according to the company.
More shoes， more trips
Consumer products companies， especially sportswear and jewelry， may be the first to capture these newly minted4 middle-class customers， who will have more money for athletic shoes and accessories. Additional discretionary income also bodes well for fast food and restaurant chains， especially because many have yet to expand into lower-tier cities.
Families may be more apt to spend money on outside entertainment， including going to the movies and traveling abroad. Travel-related brands， from airlines to hotels， should all take note. Lastly， demand for cars also will likely rise in lower-tier cities， where ownership lags behind that of the larger urban areas， especially as incomes grow.
China’s transitioning economy will continue to ripple5 across domestic and global industries. Investors looking to tap into the next wave of growth would do well to look past6 the obvious， at the potential of the country’s smaller cities.■
在中國，尽管一线大城市吸引了大部分目光，但中小城市可能成为未来十年推动增长、拉动消费的主要动力。
上海人口约2400万，接近得克萨斯州的2700万人口数，中国其他几大城市的人口数量也不遑多让。这些城市拥有庞大的消费群体，且人均资产净值持续上升，自然吸引了国内外众多品牌的关注。
摩根士丹利研究所最近的一份报告指出，随着中国向高收入社会转型，到2030年，其个人消费可能从目前的4.4万亿美元增长至9.7万亿美元。许多投资者认为一线城市，不论是省会城市还是经济特区城市，将持续主导中国的消费经济。
不过，摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家邢自强表示，中国的中小城市，包括地级市和县级市城市群，已经占到全国GDP的59%和人口的73%，可能会成为刺激消费进而推动经济增长的更强劲引擎。他指出，“虽然不少投资者认为大城市是最重要的消费市场，但我们认为三四线城市将变得更大，居民会变得更富且消费意愿会更强烈，到2030年将贡献中国个人消费递进增量的三分之二”。
有些投资者对中国持续发展充满信心，却又不能确定合适的投资方向，可以留意华东的徐州和南通、华南的泉州或华北的保定，这些城市已初步展现强劲的消费势头，有着巨大的前景。事实上，消费品、家用汽车、旅游、娱乐和游戏等众多行业都有机会从中获利。
人口迁移
目前，中国大城市的人口增长已经放缓，甚至出现了负增长。以上海为例，2015年以来该市常住人口数便开始收缩。中国政府也在积极筹建“雄安新区”，计划将部分人口迁离北京，以缓解首都交通拥堵及其他因人口过密导致的问题。 由于中小城市落户政策更加灵活，且生育率相对较高，其人口规模在过去五年中增长相对较快，已分别达到一线和二线城市人口的9倍和3倍。邢自强谈道：“据联合国预计，未来14年内将有1.66亿农村人口迁移到城市，而其中75%将迁移到中小城市。”
消费力持续增长
经济学家一般都密切关注“收入趋同”（或贫富差距缩小）。摩根士丹利研究报告称，贫富差距缩小的原因很多，包括：中小城市劳动力与土地成本相对低廉，从而促进边际生产率提高;政府主导的基础设施和公共资源从中心城市到周边小城市再分配，使经济更好地统筹发展;智能手机与互联网等技术的广泛深入运用。
目前，上述因素均在中国发挥着作用。例如，政府出台多项政策推动医院、学校、交通基础设施等公共资源的开发，部分中小城市已从中受益。例如：2019年3月以来，中國政府不仅宣布要在北京附近建设雄安新区，而且规划了长三角“城市群”以及广东“大湾区”的宏伟蓝图。
邢自强评论道：“这一系列举措将弥补市场调控的不足，同时提升中小城市迎头赶上的速度。”
诚然，公平竞争使得大城市居民与中小城市居民的收入差距开始缩小。邢自强指出，十年前，中国中小城市家庭人均可支配收入比一线城市低55%，如今已缩至45%，到2030年可能会进一步减少至36%。
目前来说，小城市表面上的某些劣势已成为它们的优势。上海、北京等一线城市的房产租售价畸高，而中小城市的房地产价格相对来说还在可承受范围之内，因而生活成本相对较低，对企业和劳动者都颇具吸引力。同时，落户政策更灵活，社保覆盖面更广，家庭预防性储蓄需求随之降低。
以上优势结合起来，将有效促进中小城市的家庭消费。该报告预测，到2030年，中小城市的总消费量增长率为8.7%，一线城市则仅为6.6%。
随着中小城市家庭支出预算的增加，谁将从中受益？以下几个行业和品牌也许能够赶上这一消费浪潮。
互联网
瑞士瑞信银行分析师在一份报告中宣称：“值得注意的是，2017年一年之内，移动支付普及率从50.3%提升至65.5%，且大部分新增用户来自农村地区。”并指出，中国人均单日使用移动互联网时长接近5个小时。
拼多多是中国企业发掘中国农村地区增长潜力的一大突出案例。该公司以其团购优惠闻名，其产品直接来自制造商或农民并以低价批量销售。
快手则是另一家利用了中国欠发达地区的经济增长发展壮大自己的互联网公司，其主打产品是一款由腾讯资本支持的短视频应用程序。
快手官方数据显示，中国832个贫困县和特殊地区中，每5人中就有1位快手活跃用户。有些视频展示了当地人的创造力——一条让鸡群摆出“福”字形状的视频，收到了62万条“赞”。
快手已成长为电子商务平台，据该公司统计，仅在2018年，就约有115万特困地区用户在快手上卖货，销售总额高达193亿元。
旅游鞋和旅游业
消费品公司，尤其是运动服装和珠宝类品牌，可能成为首批抓住这些新兴中产阶级客户的公司。该阶层将有更多的钱购买运动鞋和饰品。额外的可自由支配收入对于快餐和连锁餐饮行业来说也是个好消息，特别是不少快餐连锁店还未下沉到中小城市。
中国家庭可能更倾向于把钱花在户外娱乐项目上，包括看电影和出国旅行。与旅游相关的品牌企业，包括航空公司和酒店等，都应对此关注。最后，尤其是随着收入的增长，汽车保有量落后于大城市的中小城市，其汽车需求量也可能会上升。
中国的经济转型将持续影响着国内外各行业。希望投身中国下一波增长浪潮的投资者比较明智的做法是将目光略过大城市，投向具有潜力的中小城市。 □
（译者单位：中南大学）