无论日本、德国还是美国,这些发达经济体面临的根本问题可能是中国的经济放缓。7月IMF发布的《世界经济展望》将今年的全球经济增速下调至3.4%,比4月份的预期低了0.3个百分点。在IMF的解释中,全球金融环境收紧和新兴经济体经济增长放缓带来的溢出效应将限制经济成长。实际上,自2012年来全球GDP增速预期持续下降,今年6月来受俄乌局势影响跳水,市场共识仅2.48%。 Whether Japan, Germany or the United States, the fundamental problem these developed economies face may be the slowdown in China. The July World Economic Outlook issued by the IMF lowered its global economic growth this year to 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the April forecast. In the IMF’s explanation, the tightening of the global financial environment and the spillover effect of the slowdown of economic growth in emerging economies will limit economic growth. In fact, since 2012, the global GDP growth rate is expected to continue to decline. In June this year, the situation in Ukraine and Uzbekistan dived and the market consensus was only 2.48%.