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自1997年以来,中国已经成为纸及纸板生产和消费大国,2009年中国纸及纸板产量第一次超过美国,成为全球最大生产国。与此同时,中国也存在着相对产量而言较小规模的纸及纸板进口及出口贸易。通过对影响中国纸及纸板进口因素的分析,并根据1983~2012年中国造纸工业相关数据,建立多元线性回归模型,从供给因素、需求因素、原材料供应等方面对可能影响中国纸及纸板进口的指标进行了计量分析,并在此基础上得出了促进我国造纸产业健康发展及积极、可持续地参与国际贸易的对策和启示。
Since 1997, China has become a large producer and consumer of paper and paperboard. For the first time in 2009, China’s paper and paperboard production surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest producer. At the same time, there is also a relatively small-scale import and export of paper and paperboard in China relative to output. Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the import of paper and paperboard in China and based on the data of China’s paper industry from 1983 to 2012, a multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the factors that could affect the import of paper and paperboard from the aspects of supply factors, demand factors and raw material supply Based on this, the countermeasures and enlightenment of promoting the healthy development of China’s paper industry and participating actively and sustainably in international trade have been drawn.