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结合我国交通规划实际,研究基于活动的出行行为动态模拟方法,用一系列具有时间维和空间维的能调查得到的特征变量来描述出行行为,并应用蒙特卡罗方法对其进行模拟.重点研究模拟模型的建立和模拟的方法及过程,最后应用该方法模拟辽宁省某市城市居民的出行行为.结果显示所提出的模拟模型误差较小,能准确反映出行行为.
Based on the actual traffic planning in our country, this paper studies the activity-based dynamic simulation of travel behavior and describes the travel behavior with a series of characteristic variables that can be investigated with time dimension and space dimension, and simulates it with Monte-Carlo method. Finally, this method is used to simulate the travel behavior of urban residents in a city of Liaoning Province.The results show that the error of the proposed simulation model is small, which can accurately reflect the travel behavior.